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2023/2024年冬季北半球大气环流特征及对我国天气气候的影响
章大全, 刘芸芸
(国家气候中心)
Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics of Northern Hemisphere in Winter 2023/2024 and its Impact on Weather and Climate of China
zhangdaquan, liuyunyun
(National Climate Center)
摘要
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投稿时间:2024-04-18    修订日期:2024-05-28
中文摘要: 利用国家气象信息中心整编发布的中国台站观测资料和全球大气再分析资料,对2023/2024年冬季我国气候异常特征及其成因进行分析。2023/2024年冬季,全国平均气温较常年同期偏高0.3℃,气温冷暖起伏大,总体呈现“前冬暖、后冬冷”的季节内变化特征。全国平均降水量较常年同期偏多19.8%,中东部大部地区降水偏多。东亚冬季风和西伯利亚高压强度接近常年,东亚槽强度偏弱。欧亚中高纬500hPa位势高度场呈西低东高的分布形势,并具有显著的阶段性变化特征,12月和1月以纬向环流为主,2月转为异常径向型环流,有利于中高纬冷空气南下入侵我国。受赤道中东太平洋厄尔尼诺、热带印度洋和大西洋海温异常偏暖以及北太平洋年代际涛动负位相等因子的协同影响,冬季西太副高偏强偏西,菲律宾及南海上空异常反气旋阶段性活跃,欧亚对流层高层出现沿西风急流传播的波列,有利于热带水汽向我国中东部地区输送,配合中高纬冷空气南下,导致我国中东部大部地区多次出现大范围雨雪冰冻天气过程。
Abstract:Based on the observational datasets from National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC) of China and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the characteristics of spatial-temporal distributions of climate anomalies in winter 2023/2024 and its possible mechanisms are analyzed. In the winter of 2023/2024, the average temperature in China was 0.3℃ higher than climatology. The fluctuation of temperature is significant, with warmer early winter and colder late winter. The average precipitation was 19.8% more than climatology, with above normal precipitation for most parts of central and eastern China. The intensity of East Asian winter monsoon and Siberian high was near normal. The East Asian trough was weak than normal. The 500hPa geopotential height in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia was low in the west and high in the east, with significant subseasonal fluctuation. Zonal atmospheric circulation prevails in December 2023 and January 2024, and transition to meridional patterns in February 2024, which was favorable for cold surge outbreak. In response to the synergistic effect of El Ni?o mature phase, warm tropical Indian and Atlantic ocean, cold phase of Pacific decadal oscillation, an anomalous lower tropospheric anticyclone developed in the western North Pacific, the western Pacific subtropical high intensified and extends westward, a Rossby wave train propagates along Asian westerly jet in the upper troposphere, which was favorable for the water vapor transport into central and eastern China. The confluence of cold air intrusion and warm air leads to frequent snow and rain process in central and eastern China.
文章编号:202404180091     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(42175047, 41975091),中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J004, CXFZ2024J048), 安徽省自然科学基金江淮气象联合基金项目(2208085UQ10)、贵州新气象科技有限责任公司“揭榜挂帅”项目(2024-N69)和中国长江电力股份有限公司科研项目(2423020054)共同资助。
作者单位地址
章大全* 国家气候中心 北京市海淀区中关村南大街46号国家气候中心
刘芸芸 国家气候中心 
Author NameAffiliationAddress
zhangdaquan National Climate Center 北京市海淀区中关村南大街46号国家气候中心
liuyunyun  
引用文本:
zhangdaquan,liuyunyun,0.Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics of Northern Hemisphere in Winter 2023/2024 and its Impact on Weather and Climate of China[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
zhangdaquan,liuyunyun,0.Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics of Northern Hemisphere in Winter 2023/2024 and its Impact on Weather and Climate of China[J].Meteor Mon,():-.