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广西初春双对流强降水带过程诊断分析
覃皓1, 范娇1,2, 农孟松1, 赖珍权1, 翟舒楠1, 刘乐1, 刘晓梅1, 庞芳1, 周亦靖1, 邱滋1
(1.广西壮族自治区气象台;2.南宁市气象局)
Diagnosis and analysis of a double convective heavy precipitation bands process in Guangxi in early spring
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投稿时间:2024-01-25    修订日期:2024-04-19
中文摘要: 2023年3月25日20时—26日08时,广西出现一次双对流强降水带过程,与以往双雨带的性质存在显著差异,主观预报出现明显偏差。利用多源实况以及ERA5再分析资料,对此次过程进行了Rossby波能量频散、湿位涡及水平锋生强迫等诊断分析。结果表明:该过程发生于大尺度环流调整背景下,中高纬地区源自极涡以及黑海的两支Rossby波列共同促进了东北横槽在东移过程中逐渐转竖,引导冷空气补充南下。低纬地区南支槽在此期间逐渐东移,为广西地区冷垫之上的气层抬升提供动力条件,同时也促进低层冷暖空气在广西交汇。随着冷空气补充南下、惯性振荡促使偏南风向北推进,冷暖空气在广西一带交汇增强,大气湿斜压性增强使得湿位涡发展,导致层结出现条件对称不稳定。暖湿空气自南向北倾斜爬升至700 hPa附近条件对称不稳定区后与高空槽前正涡度平流相配合触发高架对流,使得北支对流带发展。冷空气深入南下后受广西特殊地形影响,等θse线与流场的有利配置形成拉伸变形效应导致锋生强迫,使得越南东北部南支初始对流触发。北部湾中部低层较大θse纬向梯度以及强垂直风切变造成较强湿斜压性,促进南支对流系统途经时组织化发展,并由于中层干空气夹卷形成弓形回波。
Abstract:Guangxi encountered a double convective bands process from 20:00 BT 25 March to 08:00 BT 26 March 2023, which are significantly different from that of the double traditional rain belts, resulting in a significant deviation in the subjective forecast. Based on multi-source observation data and ERA5 reanalysis data, the Rossby wave energy dispersion, moist potential vorticity and horizontal frontogenic forcing were diagnosis and analyzed in this process. The results show that the process occurred under the background of large-scale circulation adjustment. The two Rossby wave trains originated from the polar vortex and the Black Sea in the middle and high-latitude jointly promoted the gradual vertical rotation of the northeast transversal trough, and guided the mid and high latitude cold air further southward. During this period, the south branch trough in the low latitude gradually moved eastward, which provided the dynamic lifting above the cold cushion in Guangxi, and also promoted the convergence of cold and warm air in the low level in Guangxi. With the addition of cold air to the south and southerly winds advance northward under the inertial oscillation, the convergence of warm and cold air in Guangxi was enhanced, and the enhancement of atmospheric moist baroclinicity leads to the development of moist potential vorticity, resulting in conditional symmetric instability of stratification. Warm and moist air climbed from south to north to the conditional symmetric instability area near 700 hPa, and then combined with the positive vorticity advection in front of the upper level trough to trigger elevated convection, resulting in the development of the northern branch convective band. Influenced by the special topography of Guangxi, the favorable configuration of the θse isoline and the flow formed a tensile deformation effect, resulting in frontogenic forcing, which triggered the initial convection in the south branch of Northeast Vietnam. The large θse latitudinal gradient and strong vertical wind shear in the low level of the central Beibu Gulf resulted in strong moist baroclinicity, which promoted the organization development of the southern branch convective system when it passed through, and formed bow echo due to the mid-level dry air ensnagging.
文章编号:202401250024     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:(2023GXNSFBA026340,2023GXNSFBA026349,2022GXNSFBA035565)、广西壮族自治区气象局短时临近天气预报技术创新团队项目共同资助
Author NameAffiliationAddress
QIN Hao Guangxi Meteorological Observatory 广西南宁市广西壮族自治区气象台
FAN Jiao  
NONG Mengsong  广西南宁市广西壮族自治区气象台
LAI Zhenquan  
zhaishunan  
LIU Le  
LIU Xiaomei  
PANG Fang  
ZHOU Yijing  
QIU Zi  
引用文本:
QIN Hao,FAN Jiao,NONG Mengsong,LAI Zhenquan,zhaishunan,LIU Le,LIU Xiaomei,PANG Fang,ZHOU Yijing,QIU Zi,0.Diagnosis and analysis of a double convective heavy precipitation bands process in Guangxi in early spring[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
QIN Hao,FAN Jiao,NONG Mengsong,LAI Zhenquan,zhaishunan,LIU Le,LIU Xiaomei,PANG Fang,ZHOU Yijing,QIU Zi,0.Diagnosis and analysis of a double convective heavy precipitation bands process in Guangxi in early spring[J].Meteor Mon,():-.