###
本文二维码信息
北京一次罕见1月初雪过程的复杂降水相态成因分析
荆浩, 赵桂洁, 于波, 翟亮, 郭锐, 王媛媛, 李桑, 何娜, 杨艺亚
(北京市气象台)
Analysis of Complex Precipitation Types during a Rare First Snow Process in January in Beijing
JING Hao, ZHAO Guijie, YU Bo, ZHAI Liang, GUORUI, WANG Yuanyuan, LI Sang, HE Na, YANG Yiya
(Beijing Weather Forecast Center)
摘要
相似文献
本文已被:浏览 44次   下载 122
投稿时间:2023-04-07    修订日期:2024-04-01
中文摘要: 2023年1月12日的北京降雪为近42年来首次出现在1月上中旬的初雪,其间降水相态经历了复杂的变化。本文应用多种常规观测资料和云雷达、微雨雷达等新型探测资料以及ERA5再分析资料,对此次过程进行分析,并重点探讨相态变化成因,结果表明:(1) 850 hPa以下偏南暖湿急流输送了丰富的水汽,但动力抬升较弱导致降水量不大,而近地层冷垫的缺失不利于全市范围转雪和降雪的维持。(2) 0 ℃层高度的东西差异是北京西部为雪、东部为雨的主要原因;融化和蒸发过程引起的冷却效应导致0 ℃层高度快速降至500 m以下使得平原地区转雪,>0 ℃暖层增厚和融化层以上雪花尺度与密度的减小导致平原相态由雪转为雨。(3) 针对复杂的降水相态转换,确定性模式无法准确刻画融雪过程,而短期时效内集合预报可弥补确定性模式的短板;综合应用云雷达、微雨雷达和微波辐射计等探测资料,可提高对云中成雪和边界层融雪的判断准确性,有助于提升临近时段降水相态的预报准确率。
Abstract:The snowfall in Beijing on January 12, 2023 was the first snowfall appearing in early and mid-January in last 42 years, and the precipitation types underwent complex changes during this process. In this paper, we utilize various conventional and non-conventional observations such as cloud radar and micro rain radar (MMR) data as well as ERA5 reanalysis data to analyze this event, focusing on causes of complex phase distribution and variation. Our findings indicate the following: The low level warm and wet southerly jet stream provides abundant moisture for precipitation. However, a lack of uplifting of warm and wet air by cold east winds and weak upper trough results in relatively low precipitation amounts, meanwhile the northeast wind just above the surface did not play the role of cold cushion, which was not conducive to the maintenance of snow and snow in the whole city. The disparity in the height of the 0 ℃-layer between western and eastern Beijing, caused by low-level warm advection, explains the snowfall in the west and rain in the east. Additionally, the cooling effect caused by melting and evaporation process is the main reason for the rapid decrease of 0 ℃-layer height just lower than 500 m, which caused rain to snow in plain areas. Thickened > 0 ℃ warm layer and decreased snowflake size and density immediately above the melting layer caused snow to turn into rain reaching the ground. When it comes to forecasting precipitation types, deterministic models struggle to accurately depict the snow-melting process. However, short-range ensemble forecast results can compensate for the errors in deterministic models. Integrating cloud radar, micro rain radar, and microwave radiometer data ETC. enhances our ability to monitor and analyze snow formation within clouds and melting in the boundary layer, thus improving the accuracy of precipitation type now casting.
文章编号:202304070090     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:北京市自然科学基金项目(8192019)和国家重点研发计划(2018YFF0300104)共同资助
作者单位地址
荆浩 北京市气象台 北京市海淀区正福寺中街10号北京市突发事件预警发布中心
赵桂洁 北京市气象台 
于波* 北京市气象台 北京市海淀区正福寺中街10号北京市突发事件预警发布中心
翟亮 北京市气象台 
郭锐 北京市气象台 
王媛媛 北京市气象台 
李桑 北京市气象台 
何娜 北京市气象台 
杨艺亚 北京市气象台 
Author NameAffiliationAddress
JING Hao Beijing Weather Forecast Center 北京市海淀区正福寺中街10号北京市突发事件预警发布中心
ZHAO Guijie  
YU Bo  北京市海淀区正福寺中街10号北京市突发事件预警发布中心
ZHAI Liang  
GUORUI  
WANG Yuanyuan  
LI Sang  
HE Na  
YANG Yiya  
引用文本:
JING Hao,ZHAO Guijie,YU Bo,ZHAI Liang,GUORUI,WANG Yuanyuan,LI Sang,HE Na,YANG Yiya,0.Analysis of Complex Precipitation Types during a Rare First Snow Process in January in Beijing[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
JING Hao,ZHAO Guijie,YU Bo,ZHAI Liang,GUORUI,WANG Yuanyuan,LI Sang,HE Na,YANG Yiya,0.Analysis of Complex Precipitation Types during a Rare First Snow Process in January in Beijing[J].Meteor Mon,():-.