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联合同化闪电资料和常规地面观测资料对强对流天气预报的影响研究
师雨豪, 王昊亮, 刘玉宝
(南京信息工程大学中国气象局气溶胶与云降水重点开放实验室)
A Study on the Impact of Assimilating Lightning and Conventional Ground Observations on the Forecast of Severe Convective Weather
Shi Yuhao, Wang Haoliang, Liu Yubao
(China Meteorological Administration Aerosol-Cloud and Precipitation Key Laboratory)
摘要
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投稿时间:2023-07-05    修订日期:2024-03-04
中文摘要: 闪电资料和常规地面观测资料提供了互补的大气背景场信息,联合同化这两种资料相比于单独同化其中一种资料有进一步提高对强对流天气预报准确度的潜力。本研究以2017年06月16日发生在广东省的一次中尺度对流系统为例,分析了联合同化上述两种资料相比于单独同化其中一种资料对中尺度对流系统模拟和预报的作用。其中,闪电资料通过WRF-FDDA系统以15分钟作为一个闪电累积窗口被连续同化入模式中,常规观测资料通过WRFDA-3DVAR系统以1小时时间间隔循环同化入模式中。结果显示,相比于只同化常规地面观测资料,联合同化试验中闪电资料的引入提高了背景场中上升气流、冷池和阵风锋面的准确度,进而改善了对该对流系统的模拟和预报准确度;相比于只同化闪电观测资料,联合同化试验中常规地面观测资料的引入减小了更大范围的温度、水汽、风场的背景场误差,抑制了部分地区的虚假对流,整体上提高了对该对流系统的模拟和预报准确度。预报技巧评分结果显示,两种资料的联合同化对分析期和预报期的预报技巧评分也有一定程度的提高。
Abstract:Lightning and conventional ground observations provide complementary atmospheric background information, and the combined assimilation of these two types of data has the potential to further improve the accuracy of forecasting severe convective weather compared to assimilating only one type of data. In this study, a mesoscale convective system occurred in Guangdong Province on June 16, 2017 as an example to analyze the effect of the combined assimilation of the above two kinds of data on the simulation and prediction of mesoscale convective system compared with the single assimilation of one of the two kinds of data. The lightning data is continuously assimilated into the model through the WRF-FDDA system with a lightning accumulation window of 15 minutes, the conventional observations data is assimilated into the model by the WRFDA-3DVAR system at one hour interval. The results show that the introduction of lightning data in the joint assimilation experiment improves the accuracy of updrafts, cold pools, and gust fronts in the background fields, which in turn improves the simulation and forecast accuracy of the convective system, compared with the assimilation of conventional ground observations only. The introduction of conventional ground observations in the joint assimilation experiment reduces the background field errors in temperature, water vapor, and wind fields over a larger area, suppresses the spurious convection in some areas, and overall improves the simulation and forecast accuracy of the convective system. The results of prediction skill score show that the combined assimilation of the two kinds of data also improved the prediction skill score of the analysis period and the forecast period to some extent.
文章编号:202307050169     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)
Author NameAffiliationAddress
Shi Yuhao China Meteorological Administration Aerosol-Cloud and Precipitation Key Laboratory 江苏省南京市浦口区宁六路219号
Wang Haoliang  江苏省南京市浦口区宁六路219号
Liu Yubao  
引用文本:
Shi Yuhao,Wang Haoliang,Liu Yubao,0.A Study on the Impact of Assimilating Lightning and Conventional Ground Observations on the Forecast of Severe Convective Weather[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Shi Yuhao,Wang Haoliang,Liu Yubao,0.A Study on the Impact of Assimilating Lightning and Conventional Ground Observations on the Forecast of Severe Convective Weather[J].Meteor Mon,():-.