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岷沱江、嘉陵江流域致宜昌大洪水暴雨过程的特征研究及天气成因分析
王孝慈, 孟英杰, 李双君
(武汉中心气象台)
Study on the Characteristics of rainstorm Process and Weather Cause Analysis of Yichang Flood Caused by Mintuo River and Jialing River Basins
wang xiao ci, Meng Yingjie, LI Shuangjun
(Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory,Wuhan)
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投稿时间:2023-09-19    修订日期:2024-03-20
中文摘要: 为揭示岷沱江、嘉陵江流域致大洪水暴雨过程的天气成因及宜昌控制站雨洪规律,加深对宜昌站大洪水发生发展机制的研究,基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及常规气象水文实况观测资料,采用统计学、天气学等方法分析研究了1980-2020年发生在岷沱江、嘉陵江流域的19例致洪暴雨过程的洪水特征、致洪暴雨源地、雨带特征、地形及天气系统配置等要素。结果表明:(1)连续性暴雨过程开始前,长江流域主要控制站—宜昌的起始入库流量需达到19000 m3·s-1左右,从岷沱江或嘉陵江的连续性暴雨过程开始至洪峰产生所需时长平均在6天左右。暴雨持续时间和累计面雨量与洪峰有较好的对应关系,每次致洪过程至少需要一次长达3天以上的暴雨,多数在4-6天。(2)大洪水过程全部发生在7-9月。7月中旬—8月中旬,是宜昌最频繁出现高峰型大洪水的主要月份,50000秒立方米以上的日均流量有62%个过程都出现在这个时期。(3)致洪暴雨过程以准静止型雨带为主,其次是偏东型和转向型。85%的过程雨带呈东北—西南向的带状分布。强降水中心源地与特殊地形有密切关系,主要分布于3个地方:岷江下游与青衣江交汇处,转向型降水多在此处发生;嘉陵江中下游及涪江流域及渠江流域,多以准静止型为主;涪江中游及渠江流域北部,东移型暴雨过程则多发于此。(4)降水过程分为准静止持续性降雨和移动性持续性降水2类。易发大洪水的天气概念模型有3类:Ⅰ型为西太平洋副高边缘,西风短波东移触发暴雨型,副高一般呈现出南北走向的经向型,常阻塞于川东地区,形成“西低东高”形势,南下东移的短波低值系统被副高阻挡在岷沱江流域,稳定少动,多产生准静止型雨带;Ⅱ型为青藏高原低值系统东移触发暴雨型,副高多呈纬向型分布,高原多低值系统活动,切变线多为横切,低涡经常形成于切变线西部,沿着切变线东移,易形成移动型降水;Ⅲ型为低层偏东气流暴雨型,降水过程少,多发于8月,北部多为大陆高压或西太副高联手,岷沱江、嘉陵江受到低压底部偏东北气流影响,有弱冷空气下渗,其南侧热带低压系统长时间受阻并稳定西行,在两者之间容易形成一只强的东风气流,再结合特殊地形区域,连续性强降水极易产生并加强。(5)近70%过程有热带低值系统或台风的参与,其中孟加拉湾热带低压系统的存在对上游产生连续性暴雨至关重要。不仅为岷沱江、嘉陵江流域带来充足能量和水汽,其东侧水汽的卷入容易在岷沱江、嘉陵江流域触发低涡,再配合特殊地形,产生强的上升运动。
Abstract:In order to reveal the weather causes of the rainstorm process that caused the flood in the Mintuo River and Jialing River basins, the rainfall and flood law of Yichang Control Station, and deepen the research on the occurrence and development mechanism of the flood in Yichang Station, based on the NCEP/NCAR(National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCEP/NCAR)reanalysis data and the conventional meteorological and hydrological observation data, the flood characteristics of 19 flood causing rainstorm processes that occurred in the Mintuo River and Jialing River basins from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed and studied using statistical and synoptic methods Flood causing rainstorm source, rain belt characteristics, topography and weather system configuration, etc. The results show that: (1) Before the continuous rainstorm process starts, the initial inflow flow of Yichang, the main control station in the Yangtze River basin, needs to reach about 19000m3 · s-1, and the average time from the beginning of the continuous rainstorm process of Mintuo River or Jialing River to the peak flood is about 6 days. The duration of rainstorm and cumulative area rainfall have a good correspondence with the flood peak. Each flood generating process requires at least one rainstorm of more than 3 days, most of which are 4-6 days. (2) The entire flood process occurred from July to September. Mid July to mid August is the main month in Yichang where peak type floods occur most frequently, with 62% of the daily average flow of over 50000 cubic meters per second occurring during this period. (3) The process of flood causing rainstorm is dominated by quasi-static rain belt, followed by easterly type and turning type. 85% of the process rain bands are distributed in a northeast southwest direction. The central source of heavy precipitation is closely related to special terrain, mainly distributed in three places: the intersection of the lower reaches of the Minjiang River and the Qingyi River, where turning precipitation mostly occurs; The middle and lower reaches of the Jialing River, the Fujiang River basin, and the Qujiang River basin are mostly of quasi static type; In the middle reaches of the Fujiang River and the northern part of the Qujiang River basin, the eastward moving rainstorm process often occurs here. (4) The precipitation process is divided into two categories: quasi stationary persistent precipitation and mobile persistent precipitation. There are three types of weather conceptual models that are prone to major floods: Type I is the edge of the subtropical high in the Western Pacific. The westerly short wave moves eastward to trigger the rainstorm type. The subtropical high generally presents a north-south meridional type, often blocking in eastern Sichuan, forming a situation of "low in the west and high in the east". The short-wave low value system moving southward and eastward is blocked in the Mintuo River basin by the subtropical high, which is stable and less dynamic, and produces more quasi-static rain belts; Type II is the rainstorm type triggered by the eastward movement of the low value system of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau. The subtropical high is mostly distributed in the latitudinal direction. The multi low value system of the plateau is active, and the shear line is mostly transverse. The vortex is often formed in the west of the shear line, moving eastward along the shear line, which is easy to form mobile precipitation; Type III is a low-level easterly flow rainstorm type, with few precipitation processes, mostly occurring in August. In the north, the continental high pressure or the Western Pacific subtropical high cooperate. The Mintuo River and Jialing River are affected by the northeast flow at the bottom of the low pressure, with weak cold air infiltration. The tropical low-pressure system in the south is blocked for a long time and moves steadily westward. A strong easterly flow is easy to form between the two. Combined with special terrain areas, continuous heavy precipitation is very easy to produce and strengthen. (5) Nearly 70% of the processes involve tropical low value systems or typhoons, among which the existence of the Bay of Bengal tropical depression system is crucial to the continuous rainstorm in the upstream. Not only does it bring enough energy and water vapor to the Mintuo River and Jialing River basins, but the involvement of water vapor on its eastern side can easily trigger low eddies in the Mintuo River and Jialing River basins, combined with special terrain, resulting in strong upward motion.
文章编号:202309190214     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:(2023AFD099)资助
作者单位地址
王孝慈 武汉中心气象台 湖北省武汉市洪山区东湖东路3号湖北省气象局武汉中心气象台
孟英杰* 武汉中心气象台 湖北省武汉市洪山区东湖东路3号湖北省气象局武汉中心气象台
李双君 武汉中心气象台 
Author NameAffiliationAddress
wang xiao ci Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory,Wuhan 湖北省武汉市洪山区东湖东路3号湖北省气象局武汉中心气象台
Meng Yingjie  湖北省武汉市洪山区东湖东路3号湖北省气象局武汉中心气象台
LI Shuangjun  
引用文本:
wang xiao ci,Meng Yingjie,LI Shuangjun,0.Study on the Characteristics of rainstorm Process and Weather Cause Analysis of Yichang Flood Caused by Mintuo River and Jialing River Basins[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
wang xiao ci,Meng Yingjie,LI Shuangjun,0.Study on the Characteristics of rainstorm Process and Weather Cause Analysis of Yichang Flood Caused by Mintuo River and Jialing River Basins[J].Meteor Mon,():-.