本文已被：浏览 75次 下载 162次
投稿时间：2023-06-22 修订日期：2023-09-18
投稿时间：2023-06-22 修订日期：2023-09-18
中文摘要: 基于重庆市2011-2021年2066个加密观测自动气象站小时雨量和暴雨灾情数据，利用暴雨过程滑动抽样和百分位法确定区县暴雨预警信号发布标准及全市暴雨灾害风险预警等级标准，为重庆地方部门启动暴雨应急响应提供参考。结果表明：（1）重庆有气象主管机构的34个区县累计发生5363次暴雨过程，平均每个区县每年出现14.3次，选取1h、3h、12h作为暴雨过程预警信号发布参考历时；（2）各历时根据30~50 %、70~80 %、90~95 %、99~99.9 % 降水区间结合实际业务取整，得到暴雨蓝、黄、橙、红预警等级阈值分别是：1h-30-50-70-100mm，3h-50-70-100-150mm，12h-70-100-150-250mm；（3）区县不同预警信号的致灾概率随信号增强、历时增加而增大，综合各历时最高预警等级和最大致灾概率，各区县平均每年发布暴雨蓝、黄、橙、红预警5.4次、4.0次、1.3次、0.18次，致灾概率分别是30%、60%、85%、95%；（4）全市累计出现114次区域性暴雨过程，根据暴雨过程可能受灾区县个数发布暴雨灾害风险预警等级，平均每年发布IV级5.3次、III级3.1次、II级1.6次、I级预警0.1次，与区县预警信号发布频次基本一致，符合预警发布规律。
Abstract:Based on the hourly rainfall data of 2066 automatic weather stations and rainstorm disaster information in Chongqing from 2011 to 2021, the slide sampling of rainstorm process and the percentile method are used to determine the rainstorm warning signal standards for counties and the disaster risk warning grades for the whole city, which can provide reference for Chongqing local departments to initiate rainstorm emergency response. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) a total of 5363 rainstorm processes occurred in 34 counties with meteorological authorities in Chongqing, with an average of 14.3 times per year in each county and 1h, 3h and 12h are selected as the reference duration for issuing rainstorm process warning signals. (2) Rainstorm warning signal (blue, yellow, orange, and red) standard thresholds of different durations are obtained by taking 30~50%, 70~80%, 90~95%, and 99~99.9% precipitation levels and adjusting according to the actual application, which are as follows: 1h-30-50-70-100 mm, 3h-50-70-100-150 mm, 12h-70-100-150-250 mm. The issuance of warning signals for counties adopts the highest level of different durations. (3) The probability of disaster caused by different warning signals increases both with signal strength and duration, warning signals of blue, yellow, orange, red for each county have an average of 5.4, 4.0, 1.3, 0.18 times per year according to the highest warning level of different durations and each signal takes from maximum disaster probability of different durations as 30%, 60%, 85%, and 95% respectively. (4) A total of 114 regional rainstorm processes occurred in the city, and rainstorm disaster risk warning levels determined by the number of possible disaster counties issue an average of 5.3 (IV), 3.1 (III), 1.6 (II), 0.1 (I) times per year, which is basically consistent with the frequency of counties and conforms to the regularity of warning releases.
Key words: rainstorm warning signals; slide sampling during rainstorm process; percentile method; probability of disaster; rainstorm disaster warning.
keywords: rainstorm warning signals slide sampling during rainstorm process percentile method probability of disaster rainstorm disaster warning.
文章编号：202306220156 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:科技部国家基础研究发展规划项目：科技创新2030-
| 作者 | 单位 | 地址 |
| 王颖* | 中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室，重庆市气候中心 | 重庆市渝北区新牌坊一路68号 |
| 翟丹华 | 重庆市气象台 | |
| 廖要明 | 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室，国家气候中心 | |
| 康俊 | 中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室，重庆市气候中心 | |
| 杨宝钢 | 中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室，重庆市气候中心 |
| Author Name | Affiliation | Address |
| WANG Ying | China Meteorological Administration Economic Transformation of Climate Resources Key Laboratory,Chongqing Climate Center，Chongqing Climate Center | 重庆市渝北区新牌坊一路68号 |
| ZHAI Danhua | ||
| Liao Yaoming | ||
| KANG Jun | ||
| YANG Baogang |
引用文本：
WANG Ying,ZHAI Danhua,Liao Yaoming,KANG Jun,YANG Baogang,0.Determination of Chongqing Rainstorm Warning Level Standards Based on Intensive Automatic Observation[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
WANG Ying,ZHAI Danhua,Liao Yaoming,KANG Jun,YANG Baogang,0.Determination of Chongqing Rainstorm Warning Level Standards Based on Intensive Automatic Observation[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
WANG Ying,ZHAI Danhua,Liao Yaoming,KANG Jun,YANG Baogang,0.Determination of Chongqing Rainstorm Warning Level Standards Based on Intensive Automatic Observation[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
WANG Ying,ZHAI Danhua,Liao Yaoming,KANG Jun,YANG Baogang,0.Determination of Chongqing Rainstorm Warning Level Standards Based on Intensive Automatic Observation[J].Meteor Mon,():-.