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投稿时间:2022-10-25 修订日期:2023-04-17
投稿时间:2022-10-25 修订日期:2023-04-17
中文摘要: 冬奥会核心赛区多处于复杂地形区域,低层气象场因受地形影响较大而具有高度非均匀性。由于观测数据所能代表的范围非常有限,为详细了解赛区近地面气象场特征,高分辨率的数值模拟方法就显得非常重要了。为满足北京冬奥组委对气象预报提出的“百米级、分钟级”精细化需求,本研究针对延庆和张家口赛区构建了由中尺度气象模式与大涡模拟耦合的百米水平网格距微尺度预报系统“睿图-大涡(RMAPS-LES)”,基于观测资料和3×3 km水平网格距的中尺度数值天气预报系统“CMA北京模式(CMA-BJ)”预报结果,对2020年至2022年赛事月份(2-3月)的预报效果进行了对比检验评估。结果表明,微尺度RMAPS-LES相对于中尺度模式对站点风、温表现出了较高的预报技巧。冬奥全站点三年平均的时均2 m温度绝对误差(MAE)为1.85℃,较中尺度降低28%;三年平均的时均10 m风速MAE为2.11 m?s-1,较之降低23.6%;瞬时风向MAE为44.43°,较之降低30.33%。相对于中尺度模式CMA-BJ,RMAPS-LES具有能获得详细刻画大气微尺度湍流运动的高频数据的优势。检验结果表明其风速脉动值概率密度分布基本接近正态分布,与超声风速仪观测到的风速脉动平均分布相差不大。研究还发现,在使用动力降尺度时,不同尺度模拟区域之间需要采用一定的过渡技术以加速大涡模拟区域内大气湍流的快速生成。睿图-大涡系统采用了一种网格位温随机扰动的湍流生成方案,能有效缩短不同尺度间的过渡区域,快速达到能量平衡。RMAPS-LES技术路线经过适当的调试、改进,可广泛应用于风电厂微观选址,精细气象环境评估,森林火险、野外大型活动等对局地气象预报精度有很高要求的场景。
中文关键词: 北京冬奥会,高分辨率预报,大涡模拟,复杂地形,跨尺度模拟
Abstract:The core competition zone of the Winter Olympic Games is mostly located in the complex terrain area, and the surface meteorological field is greatly affected by the terrain which shows high heterogeneity. Therefore, the range represented by the observation data in the complex terrain area is highly limited. In order to understand the structure characteristics of the low-level surface meteorological field in the competition area in detail, the high-resolution numerical simulation method becomes very important. In this study, to meet the Fine meteorological service requirements in 100 m/minutes level which proposed by the Organizing Committee for the Beijing Winter Olympics, a real-time forecast system with 100 meters horizontal grid spacing "RMAPS-LES" which coupled with mesoscale meteorological model and large eddy simulation was especially built for Yanqing and Zhangjiakou competition zones. Based on the observation data of Winter Olympics zones and the 3×3 km horizontal grid spacing from "CMA-BJ" mesoscale forecast system, the “RMAPS-LES” results of the event months (February to March) from 2020 to 2022 were compared and analyzed at different space-time scales. The results show that the high-resolution microscale “RMAPS-LES” has a higher prediction skill than the mesoscale model. The Mean absolute error(MAE) of average hourly 2 m temperature of the whole winter Olympic site is 1.85 ℃, which is 28% less than the mesoscale model. The MAE of the hourly average 10 m wind speed is 2.11 m ? s-1, which is 23.6% less. The instantaneous wind direction MAE is 44.43 degree, which is 30.33% lower. Compared with the mesoscale model, “RMAPS-LES” has the advantage of obtaining high-frequency data that can describe the atmospheric micro scale turbulent movement in detail. The results of evaluation show that the probability density distribution of wind speed fluctuation is basically close to the normal distribution, and there are relatively small differences between the average value and the standard deviation between the observations. It is also found that when dynamic downscaling is used, inflow turbulence generation method needs to be used between mesoscale and microscale to accelerate the generation of atmospheric turbulence in the large eddy simulation region. The "RMAPS-LES" used the generalized cell perturbation method, which employs a novel stochastic approach based upon finite amplitude perturbations of the potential temperature field applied within a region near the inflow boundaries of the LES domain, which substantially reduced the fetch to achieve fully developed turbulence. After proper improvement, the technical route of “RMAPS-LES” can also be widely used in the Wind Power Generators Selection,forest fires,outdoor activities,and other scenes that have high requirements for fine local meteorological forecast.
文章编号:202210250313 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划),国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目),北京自然科学基金项目(面上项目)
Author Name | Affiliation | Address |
Liu Yu-jue | Institute of Urban Meteorology,China Meteorology Administration | 北京海淀区北洼西里55号北京城市气象研究院 |
Miao Shi-Guang | ||
Huang Qian-qian | ||
Li Yu-huan | ||
Zhang Yi-zhou |
引用文本:
Liu Yu-jue,Miao Shi-Guang,Huang Qian-qian,Li Yu-huan,Zhang Yi-zhou,0.Evaluation and Analysis of Meteorological Service for Beijing Winter Olympic Games Supported by RMAPS-LES Prediction System[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Liu Yu-jue,Miao Shi-Guang,Huang Qian-qian,Li Yu-huan,Zhang Yi-zhou,0.Evaluation and Analysis of Meteorological Service for Beijing Winter Olympic Games Supported by RMAPS-LES Prediction System[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Liu Yu-jue,Miao Shi-Guang,Huang Qian-qian,Li Yu-huan,Zhang Yi-zhou,0.Evaluation and Analysis of Meteorological Service for Beijing Winter Olympic Games Supported by RMAPS-LES Prediction System[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Liu Yu-jue,Miao Shi-Guang,Huang Qian-qian,Li Yu-huan,Zhang Yi-zhou,0.Evaluation and Analysis of Meteorological Service for Beijing Winter Olympic Games Supported by RMAPS-LES Prediction System[J].Meteor Mon,():-.