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中国龙卷研究进展
郑永光1,2, 刘菲凡2, 张恒进2
(1.国家气象中心;2.中国气象科学研究院)
Advances in Tornado Research in China
ZHENG Yongguang1,2, LIU Feifan, ZHANG Hengjin
(1.National Meteorological Centre;2.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences)
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投稿时间:2020-09-06    修订日期:2021-03-04
中文摘要: 近年来,中国几个EF3级以上强龙卷导致了严重人员伤亡和重大经济损失。龙卷尺度非常小、发生频率非常低。中国虽然目前尚不具备业务预报龙卷能力,但随着新一代天气雷达等观测网、现场调查和数值模式等的发展,龙卷研究取得了显著进展。中国龙卷时空分布气候特征和有利的天气背景以及环境条件已有较为全面的认识,也认识到不同天气背景下有利于龙卷产生的环境条件不尽相同。龙卷风灾现场调查流程和分析技术已经较为完备,对2016年江苏阜宁EF4级龙卷等多个强龙卷都作了详细规范的现场调查和分析,为减灾防灾提供了不可缺少的数据。对孕生龙卷的超级单体风暴中小尺度特征取得了较为深入认识,如不太强的地面冷池,中气旋底高通常低于1 km、强度与龙卷强度正相关、倾斜、龙卷碎片特征、下沉反射率因子核和部分龙卷的多涡旋特征等。使用精细云模式成功对江苏阜宁和北京通州龙卷分别进行了理想模拟,且使用WRF(Advanced Weather Research and Forecast)模式成功模拟出了2005年台风麦莎对流眼墙中的龙卷尺度涡旋和2016年阜宁龙卷的多涡旋结构。未来,仍然需要在龙卷探测技术、龙卷对流风暴精细地面要素分布和结构特征、龙卷涡旋和闪电活动特征等方面细致深入研究,更需要通过更高时空分辨率观测资料分析和极高分辨率的数值模拟获取龙卷发展的关键因素和机理,从而为提升龙卷的预报预警能力提供更为坚实的科学基础。
Abstract:Several intense tornadoes (≥EF3) in China in recent years resulted in heavy casualties and serious economic losses. The tornado has a very small scale, and its occurrence frequency in China is extremely low. At present, tornadoes cannot still be forecast in operation in China. However, with the development of observation networks of new-generation weather radar and surface automatic weather stations, damage survey and numerical weather prediction model, remarkable progress in tornado research in China has been made. The climatology, synoptic backgrounds and favorable environmental conditions for tornado in China have been understood, and it has also been found that the favorable environmental conditions for tornado in different synoptic backgrounds are somewhat different. The damage survey process and analysis technology of tornado disaster have been developed and completed. The damage surveys and analyses of several intense tornadoes, such as the 2016 Funing, Jiangsu Province EF4 tornado, have been made in detail. More understandings of meso- and micro-scale characteristics of tornadic convective storms have been got, including the findings of the storm cold pool with appropriate intensity, the bottom of the mesocyclone generally lower than the height of 1 km, the positive intensity correlation between tornado and its parent mesocyclone, slantwise mesocyclone, tornadic debris signature, descending reflectivity core, and multi-vortex structure of some tornadoes. Two tornadoes have successfully been ideally simulated using a fine-resolution cloud model, and the tornado-scale vortices in the convective eyewall of 2005 typhoon Matsa and the multiple vortices of the 2016 Funing tornado have been successfully simulated by using the WRF (Advanced Weather Research and Forecast) model. Future, we still need to further develop tornado detection technology, and to study fine surface meteorological element distribution and structure features, tornado vortex and lightning activity of tornadic convective storms, and close studies on the development mechanisms of tornado are surely needed using finer-resolution observation data and higher-resolution numerical weather simulation, in order to provide more scientific foundations to promote the tornado forecasting and warning ability in China.
文章编号:202009060320     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1507504和2017YFC1502003)、国家自然科学基金面上项目(41375051)和中国工程科技中长期发展战略研究领域战略研究项目(2019-ZCQ-06)
Author NameAffiliationAddress
ZHENG Yongguang National Meteorological Centre
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences 
北京海淀区中关村南大街46号
LIU Feifan  
ZHANG Hengjin  
引用文本:
郑永光,刘菲凡,张恒进,0.Advances in Tornado Research in China[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
ZHENG Yongguang,LIU Feifan,ZHANG Hengjin,0.Advances in Tornado Research in China[J].Meteor Mon,():-.