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机器学习在强对流监测预报中的应用进展
周康辉1, 郑永光1, 韩雷2, 董万胜3
(1.国家气象中心;2.中国海洋大学信息科学与工程学院;3.中国气象科学研究院)
Advances in application of machine learning in severe convective weather monitoring and forecasting
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投稿时间:2019-09-26    修订日期:2021-01-14
中文摘要: 近年来,机器学习理论和方法应用蓬勃发展,已在强对流天气监测和预报中广泛应用。各类机器学习算法,包括传统机器学习算法(如随机森林、决策树、支持向量机、神经网络等)和深度学习方法,已在强对流监测、短临预报、短期预报领域发挥了积极的重要作用,其应用效果往往明显优于依靠统计特征或者主观经验积累的传统方法。机器学习方法,能够更有效提取高时空分辨率的中小尺度观测数据的强对流特征,为强对流监测提供更全面、更强大的自动识别和追踪能力;能够有效综合应用多源观测数据、分析数据和数值预报模式数据,为强对流临近预报预警提取更多有效信息;能够有效地对数值模式预报进行释用和后处理,提升全球数值模式、高分辨率区域数值模式在强对流天气预报上的应用效果。最后,给出了目前机器学习方法应用中存在的问题和未来工作展望。
中文关键词: 强对流  预报  机器学习  深度学习
Abstract:Recently, the theory of machine learning, as well as its applications in severe convective weather, has been developed in an unprecedented speed. Various machine learning algorithms, such as random forest, decision tree, support vector machine, neural network and deep learning have played important roles in severe convective weather monitoring, nowcasting, short-term forecasting and short-range forecasting, which often got better performances than traditional methods. With the help of machine learning, it is easier to extract the meso-scale features of convective systems in high temporal and spatial resolution observation data, resulting in better performances of automatic convective weather identification and tracking and warning. Machine learning is also a good tool for multi-source data integration, including observation data integration and observation and numerical weather prediction(NWP) data integration. Machine learning can also be an effective postprocessing method for NWP. Many works have showed that machine learning can extract the features of severe weather happening from global or regional NWP data and give a reliable severe weather forecasts. Finally, the issues and outlooks of machine learning application are presented.
文章编号:201909260353     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507504和2017YFC1502003)、国家自然科学基金面上项目(41875005)、中国工程科技中长期发展战略研究领域战略研究项目(2019-ZCQ-06)
引用文本:
周康辉,郑永光,韩雷,董万胜,0.Advances in application of machine learning in severe convective weather monitoring and forecasting[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Zhou Kanghui,Zheng Yongguang,Han Lei,Dong Wansheng,0.Advances in application of machine learning in severe convective weather monitoring and forecasting[J].Meteor Mon,():-.