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基于流域地貌的中小河流致洪动态临界面雨量阈值研究
包红军, 林建, 曹爽
(国家气象中心)
Topography-based dynamic critical arearainfall threshold for small to middle-sized river flood warning
BAO Hongjun, Lin Jian, Cao Shuang
(National Meteorological Center)
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投稿时间:2019-12-23    修订日期:2020-08-27
中文摘要: 构建基于流域下垫面地形地貌的中小河流致洪动态临界面雨量阈值移植技术,旨在提出一种解决无资料中小流域洪水预警的方法。选取影响中小河流致洪的四个流域特征信息:面积、河道坡度、土地利用类型和土壤类型,建立基于流域土壤饱和度的致洪动态临界面雨量阈值与面积、河道坡度、土地利用类型和土壤类型数据之间的指数模型;将指数模型移植无/缺资料中小流域,根据待求流域的面积、河道坡度、土地利用类型和土壤类型确定致洪动态临界面雨量阈值。选取我国东部亚热带季风气候区的淮河潢川流域、钱塘江屯溪与渔梁流域、太湖西苕溪与南苕溪流域等五个中小流域为试验流域,以警戒洪水为例,结合流域长序列水文气象资料,基于GMKHM分布式水文模型分别推求出潢川、渔梁、西苕溪与南苕溪流域致洪动态临界面雨量阈值;依据致洪动态临界面雨量阈值与面积、河道坡度、土地利用类型和土壤类型的指数模型,推求确定屯溪流域致洪动态临界面雨量阈值,并与基于长序列水文气象资料反演出的动态临界阈值在屯溪流域35场典型洪水预警中对比验证。结果表明,本研究构建的中小河流洪水致洪动态临界面雨量阈值模型与基于长序列水文气象资料的动态阈值反演模型在屯溪流域洪水预警效果相近,命中率为91.4%,对无资料中小河流洪水预报预警与山洪灾害预警均有一定的借鉴意义。
Abstract:Aim to solve flood warning of the ungauged and small to middle-sized basin, the topography-based dynamic critical arearainfall threshold model is developed for solving flood warning of the ungauged and small to middle-sized basin in this paper. The exponential equation model between dynamic critical arearainfall threshold and four main characteristic factors is established. Four main characteristic factors include basin area, channel slope, land use and soil type, which taking main effect on flood generation process in small to middle-sized basin. Dynamic critical arearainfall threshold in the ungauged basin is calculated with the developed exponential equation model of the gauged basins and four main characteristic factors of the ungauged basin. Five small to medium-sized basins in the subtropical monsoon climate region of eastern China are selected as the test basins, including Huangchuan basin of Huaihe River, Tunxi and Yuliang basins of Qiantang River, Xitiaoxi and nantiaoxi basins of Taihu Lake. Taking the warning flood as an example, dynamic critical arearainfall thresholds of Huangchuan, Yuliang, Xitiaoxi and nantiaoxi basins are inversed with the long-term hydrological and meteorological data by the GMKHM hydrological distributed model. According to the developed critical threshold model, dynamic critical arearainfall threshold of Tunxi basin is calculated basing on basin area, channel slope, land use and soil type. The topography-based dynamic critical arearainfall threshold is applied to flood warning verification of 35 representative flood events in Tunxi basin. Results show that flood warning hit rate basing on the topography-based dynamic critical arearainfall threshold is 91.4%,Which is close to that taking the basis on dynamic critical arearainfall threshold calculating with long-term hydrological and meteorological data in Tunxi basin. The developed topography-based dynamic critical arearainfall threshold model has certain reference significance for similar flood warning of ungauged basins and flash flood warning.
文章编号:201912230448     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:科技部国家基础研究发展规划项目,国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)
引用文本:
包红军,林建,曹爽,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
BAO Hongjun,Lin Jian,Cao Shuang,0.Topography-based dynamic critical arearainfall threshold for small to middle-sized river flood warning[J].Meteor Mon,():-.