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基于环境参数的极端暴雨指数构建及其应用<sub><sup>*</sup></sub>
张 霞1,2, 王新敏1,2, 栗 晗1,2, 吕林宜1,2
(1.河南省气象台;2.中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室)
Construction and Application of Extreme Rainstorm Index Based on Environmental Parameters
ZHANG Xia1,2, WANG Xinmin1,2, LI Han1,2, LV Linyi1,2
(1.Henan Meteorological Observatory;2.CMAHenan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique)
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投稿时间:2018-12-12    修订日期:2020-04-26
中文摘要: 采用百分位法和1981-2010年30 a逐年日降水量资料,设置了河南省极端暴雨阈值和区域极端暴雨标准,据此选取1981-2016年河南省极端暴雨个例13例,使用欧洲中期天气预报中心1°X1°再分析资料(ERA-Interim)对其环境参数进行分析,发现:表征大气水汽、动力及不稳定条件的环境参数,如850 hPa比湿和涡度、700 hPa垂直速度和V风分量,200 hPa散度、整层水汽含量、K指数、0~3 km垂直风切变等,在极端暴雨过程中的平均值远远偏离其气候平均值,上述环境参数对极端暴雨预报有指示意义;环境参数的标准差倍数与降雨量具有较好相关性,二者的分位值基本沿y=x的对角线分布,环境参数标准差倍数分位值≥%80时,对异常降水(降水分位≥%90)有明显正相关;而环境参数标准差倍数分位较低时(<%40%),则更多对应了小量级降水。单一环境参数的异常往往不能体现降水异常程度,基于对极端暴雨有明确指示意义的8个环境参数,组建了极端暴雨指数(ERI),经13例极端暴雨个例回代和预报效果评估,ERI≥0.7时,极端暴雨TS评分达35%,漏报率为27%,空报率49%,可将其作为极端暴雨预报的参考阈值。2018年“温比亚”台风极端暴雨过程中应用表明,该指数对极端暴雨落区预报有较好参考意义。
Abstract:Using percentile method and daily precipitation data from 1981 to 2010, this paper proposed extreme rainstorm threshold and regional extreme rainstorm standard of Henan province. Aimed at 13 extreme rainstorm samples selected from 1981 to 2016 based on above criterions, this paper analyzed the environment parameters of these samples using the ECMWF (European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis datasets. The results show that: the average values during the extreme rainstorms of environment parameters such as specific humidity and vorticity at 850 hPa, vertical speed and v wind component at 700 hPa, divergence at 200 hPa, precipitation water, K index and vertical wind shear at 0~3 km which represent the water vapor, dynamics and instability conditions, are far exceed their climatic average value, which means these environment parameters are instructive to extreme rainstorm forecasting. The standard deviation multiple of environment parameters have good correlation with rainfall and their quantile values are distributed along the diagonal line. When quantile value of standard deviation multiple of environment parameters is greater than or equal to 80%, it is positively correlated with abnormal precipitation (quantile values is greater than or equal to 90%). However there are more weak precipitation when standard deviation multiple of environment parameters at lower quantile value (less than 40%). The anomaly of single environment parameter always dosen′t reflect the degree of precipitation anomaly. Thus we build the extreme rainstorm index (ERI) based on the 8 environment parameters discussed above and tested it by 13 extreme rainstorm samples. The test results show that the TS, missing rate and false rate are 35%, 27%, 49% when ERI is greater than or equal to 0.7. The practical application of ERI during Rumbia typhoon extreme rainstorm process indicated that ERI has good reference meaning for forecast of extreme rainstorm area.
文章编号:201812120536     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:河南省气象局重点项目(Z201601)、河南省科技攻关项目(172102310463,182102310757)、国家自然科学基金项目(91637105,41475041)
引用文本:
张 霞,王新敏,栗 晗,吕林宜,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
ZHANG Xia,WANG Xinmin,LI Han,LV Linyi,0.Construction and Application of Extreme Rainstorm Index Based on Environmental Parameters[J].Meteor Mon,():-.