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BCC第二代气候系统模式对东亚夏季气候预测能力的评估
程智1, 高辉2, 朱月佳3, 史跃玲4, 汪栩加1
(1.安徽省气候中心;2.国家气候中心;3.安徽省气象台;4.宣城市气象局)
Evaluation of East Asia Summer Climate Prediction by BCC Second-Generation Climate System Model
CHENG Zhi1, Gao Hui2, Zhu Yuejia3, Shi Yueling4, Wang Xujia1
(1.Anhui Climate Center;2.National Climate Center;3.Anhui Meteorological Observatory;4.Xuancheng Meteorological Office)
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投稿时间:2019-03-24    修订日期:2020-03-03
中文摘要: 基于国家气候中心第二代气候系统模式的回报和实时预测数据,利用同期和滞后相关、偏相关分析以及联合EOF分解等方法,评估了其对夏季东亚环流和降水的预测能力,结果表明,该模式对高低层环流和降水气候态的空间分布形势,特别是强降水中心和季风系统成员位置的预测较为合理,但存在一定的系统性偏差。模式对于东亚特别是中国大陆地区夏季降水年际变化的预测能力较弱,但对于东亚500hPa高度场年际变化的预测效果较好,并且随着起报月的临近,技巧有所改进,此外模式对于东亚夏季气候变率主要模态的时空分布特征具有较高的预测技巧。模式较好的反映出了东亚夏季气候对厄尔尼诺发展和衰减响应的主要特征,其技巧主要来源于对于东部型厄尔尼诺影响的准确把握。总体来看,该模式对东亚夏季气候的预测能力较好,对短期气候预测具有一定参考价值。
Abstract:Based on circulation and precipitation hindcast and real-time forecast data of BCC Second-Generation Climate System Model developed by National Climate Centre, evaluation works of East Asian summer climate prediction are carried by synchronized and lag correlation, partial correlation and combined EOF decomposition analysis. Results show the main spatial distribution of high and low level circulation and precipitation climatical fields can be well predicted, particularly the location of the heavy rainfall center and members of the monsoon system, but with some systematic biases. The model predict precipitation interannual variability in East Asia especially in China with poor skill, but has decent prediction ability on 500hPa geopotential height interannual variability, and its skill improves as the approaching of starting month. The model can predict the temporal and spatial distribution of the main modes of interannual variations of the East Asian climate with high skill. It can also catch the main characteristics of the response of East Asian climate variability in developing El Ni?o and decaying El Ni?o period,which mainly come from east patern El Ni?o events. Overall, BCC_Second-Generation Climate System Model model can predict the East Asian summer climate with decent skill, which can benefit the short-term climate prediction.
文章编号:201903240119     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41605068)淮河流域气象开放研究基金(HRM201707)中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-053)核心业务发展专项(YBGJXM(2018)05-5)共同资助
引用文本:
程智,高辉,朱月佳,史跃玲,汪栩加,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
CHENG Zhi,Gao Hui,Zhu Yuejia,Shi Yueling,Wang Xujia,0.Evaluation of East Asia Summer Climate Prediction by BCC Second-Generation Climate System Model[J].Meteor Mon,():-.