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GRAPES模式对西北四省地区降水预报定量评估
吴晶1, 李照荣1, 颜鹏程2, 杨艳芬3, 白磊4, 杨建才1, 彭筱1
(1.兰州中心气象台;2.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所;3.西北农林科技大学;4.武汉理工大学)
The quantity assessment of precipitation forecast by GRAPES in four provinces of northwestern China
WU Jing1, LI Zhaorong1, YAN Pengcheng2, YANG Yanfen3, BAI Lei4, YANG Jiancai1, PENG Xiao1
(1.Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory;2.Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province / Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration,Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration;3.State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau,Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Northwest A F University;4.School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology)
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投稿时间:2018-11-09    修订日期:2019-09-18
中文摘要: 基于中国西北四省2016-2017年的站点观测降水数据和GRAPES区域数值模式24h、48h预报结果, 采用平均误差、均方根误差、相关系数、分等级TS评分等指标,对GRAPES区域数值模式在西北四省地区降水进行定量评估。结果表明:时间上,模式对西北四省的晴雨预报准确率能达到0.7以上,逐日空间相关系数在0.2~0.4之间。夏季降水的偏差最大,24h和48h预报平均误差分别为4mm/day和6mm/day,均方根误差分别为6mm/day和8mm/day。不同等级降水的24h和48h预报TS评分显示,各个月份小雨TS评分在0.2~0.5之间,中雨在0.1~0.2之间,大雨以上不到0.1。空间上,24h预报和48h预报晴雨准确率在大部分地区达到0.6以上,相关系数在甘肃东部、陕西中部和南部超过0.6。24h预报平均误差在青海、甘肃、陕西三省南部最大(达到2~4mm/day), 48h预报的平均误差比相同区域的24h预报高出1~2mm/day ,在陕西南部平均误差最大(达到5~8 mm/day)。各个量级的24h预报TS评分明显好于48h,24h预报对大雨、暴雨有所预报,48h预报对中雨以上量级降水预报较差。
Abstract:Combining the gauged precipitation and the predicted precipitation in 24h and 48h of regional numerical model named GRAPES during 2016 to 2017, GRAPES was quantitatively evaluated in the four provinces of northwestern China, using the indices including mean error, root mean square error, correlation coefficient and TS score. The results showed that the forecast accuracy of rain probability was higher than 0.7, daily spatial correlation coefficient was 0.2~0.4. The highest bias appeared in summer, the mean error of 24h and 48h forecast were 4 mm/d and 6 mm/d, the root mean square error were 6 mm/d and 8 mm/d, respectively. The TS of heave rain and above was less than 0.1, TS of light rain and moderate rain were 0.2~0.5 and 0.1~0.2, . Spatially, the 24h and 48h forecast accuracy of rain probability was higher than 0.6 in most regions, the correlation coefficient in eastern Gansu, middle and southern Shaanxi was higher than 0.6. The highest mean error of 24h forecast appeared in the southern part of Qinghai, Gansu and Shaanxi, which reached to 2~4 mm/d. The highest mean error of 48h forecast reached to 5~8 mm/d and appeared in the southern Shaanxi. The mean error of 48h forecast was 1~2 mm/d higher than 24h forecast in other regions, The TS score of 24h forecast for each precipitation level was obviously better than that of 48h, 24h forecast could predict heavy rain and rainstorm, while 48h forecast showed poor ability for moderate rain and above.
文章编号:201811090494     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:(LCMO-201805),国家自然科学(41501301)
引用文本:
吴晶,李照荣,颜鹏程,杨艳芬,白磊,杨建才,彭筱,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
WU Jing,LI Zhaorong,YAN Pengcheng,YANG Yanfen,BAI Lei,YANG Jiancai,PENG Xiao,0.The quantity assessment of precipitation forecast by GRAPES in four provinces of northwestern China[J].Meteor Mon,():-.