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油菜花期物候主要限制因子分析及预报模型的构建
张佩1, 高苹1, 钱忠海2, 吴洪颜3, 江海东4
(1.江苏省气象服务中心;2.江苏省农药总站;3.江苏省气象台;4.南京农业大学农业部南方作物生理生态重点开放实验室/现代作物生产协同创新中心)
Analysis on limiting factors and construction of prediction model of oilseed rape flowering phenology
zhang pei1, gao ping1, qian zhonghai2, wu hongyan3, jiang haidong4
(1.Jiangsu Province Meteorological Bureau;2.Jiangsu Institute for the Control of Agrochemicals;3.Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory;4.Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology and Ecology in Southern China, Ministry of Agriculture /Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University)
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投稿时间:2018-12-04    修订日期:2019-12-27
中文摘要: 以油菜开花开始时间(即始花期)为研究对象,利用1980-2016年江苏省油菜发育期观测资料和同步气象数据,分析油菜始花期的时空变化趋势。结合油菜生理特性,筛选与油菜始花期显著相关的气象因子。以高淳站为例,采用通径分析明确各气象因子对油菜始花期的作用并评估因子敏感性,最后构建油菜始花期的回归预报模型。结果表明:(1)气候变化背景下江苏地区油菜始花期呈逐年提前趋势,淮河以南地区平均提前3天以上;(2)上年日平均气温稳定通过0℃终日(X1)、当年日平均气温稳定通过5℃初日(X2)、现蕾至开花前时段内大于0℃、5℃和10℃的有效积温(X3、X4和X5)、最低气温小于0℃和5℃的日数(X6和X7)及平均最低气温(X8)等8个因子与油菜始花期相关性达极显著水平;其中2月上旬-3月上旬的平均最低气温(X8)、日最低气温小于5℃日数(X7)、大于5℃有效积温(X4)对油菜始花期的直接影响位列8个因子的前三位,且这三个因子两两共同对油菜始花期的相对决定程度也排在各因子对回归方程R2总贡献率的前三位;其余5个因子直接效应普遍小于间接效应,且它们主要通过X4、X7、X8对油菜始花期产生影响,而X4、X7、X8也通过这5个因子产生一定影响;去掉任何一个因子,都会引起其它某些因子对油菜始花期的直接、间接作用发生变化;(3)基于这8个因子构建的回归模型可解释68.48%的油菜始花期变化,并具有区域适用性。因此,就江苏地区而言,光照和降水对油菜开花早晚影响较小,热量条件才是江苏油菜开花早晚的主要限制因子,所构建的始花期预报模型可较好反映油菜开花时间早晚与相关热量因子变化的规律。
中文关键词: 花期物候  预报模型  限制因子  油菜
Abstract:Taking the BDF as the research object, this paper analyzed the spatial-temporal variation trend of the beginning dates of flowering (BDF) in Jiangsu Province from 1980 to 2016 by using the observation data and synchronous meteorological data. Combining with physiological characteristics of oilseed rape, the meteorological factors significantly related to the initial flowering period significantly were selected, and the effect and sensitivity of meteorological factors were defined by path analysis. Finally, the regression prediction model of initial flowering period was constructed. The results showed : (1) Under the background of climate change, the BDF shows a tendency to advance year by year, with an average advance of more than 3 days in regions south of the Huaihe River; (2) There are 8 factors: the beginning date of the daily average temperature (DAT) above 0 ℃ stably in previous year(X1), the ending date of the DAT above 5 ℃ stably(X2), the effective accumulated temperature (EAT) above 0℃, 5℃ and 10℃(X3, X4 and X5), the number of days with daily minimum temperature (DMT) below 0 or 5 ℃ (X6 and X7)and the average minimum temperature (AMT) (X8)between budding stage and flowering stage (from early February to early March) in current year, which were significantly positively correlated to the BDF. The directly effects of X8, X7 and X4 rank the top three, and the relative determination degree of these three factors to the initial flowering period of rape was also ranked among the top three factors to the total contribution rate (TCR) of all factors to the R2 of the regression prediction model, while the direct effect of the remaining 5 factors were generally weaker than the indirect effect. And the remaining 5 factors mainly affect the BDF through X4、X7、X8, while X4、X7、X8 also exerted some influence through these 5 factors. Removing any factor would change the direct and indirect effects on the BDF. (3) The regression prediction model constructed by above 8 factors can explain 68.48% of the changes of the BDF (e.g. Gaochun District), which is also suitable for some other region. As far as Jiangsu Province is concerned, light and precipitation have little influence on the BDF, while heat condition is the main limiting factor. The prediction model of the BDF constructed in this paper can better reflect the rule of the BDF and the change of related heat factors.
文章编号:201812040527     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:公益性行业(农业)科研专项(201403039);江苏省气象局科技项目(KM201703);国家自然科学基金(41371412/D010702)
引用文本:
张佩,高苹,钱忠海,吴洪颜,江海东,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
zhang pei,gao ping,qian zhonghai,wu hongyan,jiang haidong,0.Analysis on limiting factors and construction of prediction model of oilseed rape flowering phenology[J].Meteor Mon,():-.