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基于信息扩散方法的中国台风灾害年月尺度风险评估
高歌, 黄大鹏, 赵珊珊
(国家气候中心)
Annual and Monthly Risk Assessment of Typhoon Disasters in China Based on the Information Diffusion Method
Gao Ge, huangdapeng, Zhao Shanshan
(National Climate Center)
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投稿时间:2018-11-08    修订日期:2019-04-02
中文摘要: 利用1985-2014年中国台风灾情和社会经济资料,对中国年和月尺度的台风直接经济损失的时空变化规律进行分析,并采用信息扩散方法开展损失风险评估,为提高台风灾害风险管理能力提供参考。结果表明:全国年及7-9月各月的直接经济损失均呈增加趋势。直接经济损失的月际变化特征明显,8月致灾台风个数多、损失最严重;与1985-1994年相比,后两个十年年内变化幅度大,且9-10月损失大于 6-7月。随着直接经济损失水平的增加,发生中、高风险的地区逐渐减少,年直接经济损失≥50、≥100亿元水平下,浙江风险概率为全国最高。在10、20、30年一遇三个风险水平下,浙江、广东、福建、广西年直接经济损失一直维持特重灾等级,20、30年一遇风险水平下,山东与辽宁年和8月、河北年台风直接经济损失也达特重等级,防台应对不容忽视。
Abstract:In the context of typhoon disasters information, social and economic data of China during 1985 and 2014, temporal and spatial characteristics of annual and monthly typhoon direct economic losses are analyzed in China and on provincial scale. Risk assessments are carried out by the information diffusion method as the references for improving the capabilities of typhoon disaster risk management. The results are showed as following. Annual and monthly typhoon-caused direct economic losses from July to September of China show slightly increasing trends during 1985 and 2014.The monthly variation of direct economic losses are obvious, particularly in August, with the most number of disaster-caused typhoon and the most serious losses in a year. Comparing to the period during 1985-1994, the range of monthly variations became greater and total economic losses of September and October are greater than that of June and July in recent two ten-years periods: 1995-2004 and 2005-2014. Along with the increasing of direct economic losses levels, the numbers of province with middle and high risk level are all decreased gradually. Under the condition with annual direct economic losses greater than and equal to 5 or 10 billion RMB, the risk probability in Zhejiang is the most of China. Under the three risk levels(returning period= 10,20,30years), annual direct economic losses of Zhejiang, Guangdong, Fujian and Guangxi kept in the special serious degree. Under the risk levels with 20, 30 years returning periods, annual and monthly direct economic losses of Shandong and Liaoning and annual losses of Hebei also reached the special serious degree, the defense response to typhoon should not be neglected in these areas.
文章编号:201811080489     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)
引用文本:
高歌,黄大鹏,赵珊珊,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Gao Ge,huangdapeng,Zhao Shanshan,0.Annual and Monthly Risk Assessment of Typhoon Disasters in China Based on the Information Diffusion Method[J].Meteor Mon,():-.