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GRAPES区域集合预报两种侧边界扰动方法对比试验
范宇恩1, 陈静2, 邓国2, 陈法敬2, 刘雪晴1, 徐致真3,3
(1.成都信息工程大学;2.中国气象局数值预报中心;3.中国气象科学研究院)
Comparison of two Lateral Boundary Perturbation Method in the Regional Ensemble Prediction System of GRAPES
fan yu en1, chen jing2, deng guo2, chen fa jing2, liu xue qing1, xu zhi zhen3
(1.Chengdu University of Information Technology;2.Numerical Weather Prediction Center, China Meteorological Administration;3.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration)
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投稿时间:2018-08-14    修订日期:2019-07-25
中文摘要: 提 要:中国气象局数值预报中心自2014年建立了区域集合预报业务系统,其使用的侧边界扰动由全球集合预报系统动力降尺度得到,为了深入了解侧边界扰动对区域集合预报的影响,本文基于15 km水平分辨率的区域集合预报模式,构造了动力降尺度侧边界扰动方案(DOWN方案)和尺度化滞后侧边界扰动方案(SLAF方案),并开展了2015年7月共6天的集合预报试验,并利用集合均方根误差、集合离散度、连续分级概率评分、离群值、Brier Score评分等概率预报检验方法进行了多方面检验,分析了两种侧边界扰动方案对区域集合预报质量的影响。结果表明: DOWN方案的扰动总能量在各垂直层次均大于SLAF方案,使得侧边界上前者的离散度大于后者,集合扰动增长更为合理;对于等压面要素和地面要素,DOWN方案的离散度、离群值、CRPS等评分优于SLAF方案,反映了DOWN方案构造的侧边界扰动更加合理;在降水概率预报技巧方面,SLAF方案在评分上具有一定优势,但评分的提高没有通过显著性检验,因此认为两种方案对降水预报的改进基本相当。 关键词:区域集合预报 侧边界扰动 动力降尺度 尺度化滞后平均法
Abstract:Abstract: The Numerical Weather Prediction Center of CMA(China Meteorological Administration) has established the GRAPES-REPS (Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System-Regional Ensemble Prediction System) system since 2014. The lateral boundary perturbation are provided by a global ensemble prediction system. In order to understand the impact of lateral boundary perturbation on GRAPES regional ensemble prediction. In this paper, based on the GRAPES-REPS regional ensemble prediction model with 15 km horizontal resolution, two lateral boundary perturbation are constructed. The 6-day ensemble prediction test is carried out in July 2015. Using root mean square error, set dispersion degree, CRPS, Outlier, BS score, TS score, AROC methods analyze two kinds of lateral boundary perturbation methods for Regional Ensemble Prediction System and impact of distribution characteristics. The energy of the lateral boundary perturbation obtained by dynamic downscaling(DOWN) is greater than the energy of the SLAF experiment at each vertical level, resulting in the spread of DOWN experiment greater than the dispersion of SLAF experiment. For the isobaric elements and the ground elements, the scores of DOWN experiment better than the scores of SLAF experiment, indicating that the lateral boundary perturbation of the DOWN experiment structure are more reasonable; In the aspect of precipitation probability prediction techniques, the SLAF experiment has certain advantages in scoring, but the improvement of the score does not pass the significance test, so it is considered that the two experiments are equivalent to the improvement of precipitation forecast. Key words:regional ensemble forecast,lateral boundary perturbation,dynamic downscaling,SLAF(scaled lagged average forecasting)
文章编号:201808140360     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:中国气象局公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506005),国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507405),国家自然科学基金项目(41475097)
引用文本:
范宇恩,陈静,邓国,陈法敬,刘雪晴,徐致真,0.[en_title][J].Meteor Mon,():-.
fan yu en,chen jing,deng guo,chen fa jing,liu xue qing,xu zhi zhen,0.Comparison of two Lateral Boundary Perturbation Method in the Regional Ensemble Prediction System of GRAPES[J].Meteor Mon,():-.