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气象:2019,45(1):113-125
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CINRAD-SA双偏振雷达资料在降水估测中的应用初探
陈超,胡志群,胡胜,张扬,李珊珊
(广东省气象台,广州 510640;中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081)
Preliminary Application of CINRAD-SA Dual Polarization Radar Data in Rainfall Estimation
CHEN Chao,HU Zhiqun,HU Sheng,ZHANG Yang,LI Shanshan
(Guangdong Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510640;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2017-10-12    修订日期:2018-08-20
中文摘要: 对基于水平反射率ZH和差分传播相移率KDP的降水估测综合法R(C)进行了改进,并对广州S波段双偏振雷达2016年2次飑线和2次台风降水过程的ΦDP使用小波分析进行滤波处理,在此基础上使用变距最小二乘法拟合得到KDP的值。分别使用R(C)和R(ZH)法对2次飑线和2次台风降水过程进行降水估算,将估算结果和雨量计小时雨量进行了对比,并将两种方法的评估结果进行了对比。结果表明:(1)对于飑线类型降水,R(C)法对5 mm·h-1以上的降水估测精度要好于R(ZH)法,且降水率越大,R(C)法优势越明显,当降水率≥20 mm·h-1时,两次过程R(C)法比R(ZH)法的平均相对误差(RE)降低了17.2%,平均绝对误差(AE)减少了1.89 mm,平均均方根误差(RMSE)减少了1.66 mm;(2)对于台风类型降水, R(C)法对5 mm·h-1以上的降水估测精度也好于R(ZH)法,当降水率≥20 mm·h-1时,两次过程R(C)法比R(ZH)法的平均RE降低了33.1%,平均AE减少了3.95 mm,平均RMSE减少了4.05 mm;(3)对于飑线和台风两种类型降水R(C)法都明显改善了降水率较大时的R(ZH)法低估问题,但R(C)法在降水率>10 mm·h-1时也存在低估,可能是由雨滴谱资料观测误差导致拟合的系数偏小或雷达硬件造成的观测偏差等造成的。
Abstract:In this paper, the method of QPE based on ZH and KDP[R(C ) ] method is improved, and Φ DP of Guangzhou S band dual polarization radar during two squall lines and two typhoons in 2016 is filtered by wavelet analysis, and then KDP is estimated by Φ DP in 1.5-4.5 km resolution. The rainfall of the squall lines and typhoons is estimated by R(C) and R(ZH) methods, and the estimated result is compared with the hourly rainfall gauge. In addition, the evaluating results of R(C) and R(ZH) methods are compared to each other. The results show that (1) for squall lines, R(C) is better than R(Z H) when the rainfall rate is higher than 5 mm·h-1. The higher the rainfall rate is, the more obvious the advantage of R(C) will be. When the rainfall rate is higher than 20 mm·h-1, the average RE decreases by 17.2%, the average AE decreases by 1.89 mm, and the average RMSE decreases by 1.66 mm. (2) For typhoons, R(C) is better 〖JP2〗than R(ZH) when the rainfall rate is higher than 5 mm·h-1. When the rainfall rate is higher than 20 mm·h-1,〖JP〗 the average RE of R(C) is 33.1% lower than that of R(Z H), the average AE is reduced by 3.95 mm, and the average RMSE is reduced by 4.05 mm. In general, R(C) could solve the underestimate problem existing in R(ZH) method. However, R(C) could also underestimate the precipitation when the rainfall rate is higher than 10 mm·h-1. The possible reason is the small value of the coefficient fitted by the raindrop spectrum data because of the observation error or the observation error caused by the radar hardware.
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基金项目:国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAK11B01)、中国气象局预报员专项 (CMAYBY2015 053)、国家自然科学基金项目(41375038)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506006)、气象预报业务关键技术发展专项[YBGJXM(2017)02 05]、广东省科技计划项目(2015A020217008)、灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2018LASW B09)和浙江省重大科技专项(2017C03035)共同资助
引用文本:
陈超,胡志群,胡胜,张扬,李珊珊,2019.CINRAD-SA双偏振雷达资料在降水估测中的应用初探[J].气象,45(1):113-125.
CHEN Chao,HU Zhiqun,HU Sheng,ZHANG Yang,LI Shanshan,2019.Preliminary Application of CINRAD-SA Dual Polarization Radar Data in Rainfall Estimation[J].Meteor Mon,45(1):113-125.