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气象:2018,44(8):1042-1050
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西南地区短时强降水的气候特征分析
毛冬艳,曹艳察,朱文剑,田付友,郝丽萍,康岚,张涛
(国家气象中心,北京 100081; 四川省气象局,成都 610072)
Climatic Characteristics of Short Time Severe Precipitation in Southwest China
MAO Dongyan,CAO Yancha,ZHU Wenjian,TIAN Fuyou,HAO Liping,KANG Lan,ZHANG Tao
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081; Sichuan Meteorological Service, Chengdu 610072)
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投稿时间:2017-12-18    修订日期:2018-04-05
中文摘要: 利用国家级地面气象站逐小时和日降水数据集资料,对西南地区短时强降水的气候特征进行了分析,并对近30年来强短时强降水和强暴雨的变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:西南地区短时强降水主要集中在4—10月;三个高发区分别位于贵州东南部、四川盆地西南部和云南东南部,年均发生次数约5~6次;强度一般为20~30 mm·h-1,其中贵州30 mm·h-1以上的小时降水强度所占比例最高,四川盆地西部边缘地区小时降水最强,超过80 mm·h-1,极端小时降水达123.1 mm·h-1;短时强降水具有明显的夜发性,02时左右为发生频次的峰值时段。从近30年西南地区超过第90百分位的强短时强降水与强暴雨的长期变化趋势来看,强短时强降水呈现频次增加、强度增强的变化趋势,强暴雨则变化不明显。
Abstract:Based on the hourly and daily precipitation data of national meteorological stations in Southwest China, the climatic characteristics of short time severe precipitation are analyzed. In addition, the variation trend of short time severe precipitation and severe rainstorms surpassing 90 percentile are analyzed as well. The results show that the short time severe precipitation over Southwest China mainly occurs from April to October. The three regions where short time severe precipitations are seen most frequently are located in the southeast of Guizhou Province, the southwest of Sichuan Basin, and the southeast of Yunnan Province, respectively, with average frequency is 5-6 times annually. Generally, the intensity is 20-30 mm·h-1, with the highest proportion of more than 30 mm·h-1 in Guizhou. The highest intensity occurs in the western edge of Sichuan Basin where the intensity is over 80 mm·h-1. The extreme hourly precipitation is 123.1 mm·h-1. Moreover, the nocturnal feature of the short time severe precipitations is evident and the wee hours around 02:00 am is the summit period. The long term trend of severe precipitation and rainstorm in Southwest China for the period of 1981-2010 indicates that the frequency of the heavy short time severe precipitations is increasing and the intensity becomes enhanced. For severe rainstorms, the trend is not evidently changed.
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基金项目:气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2013Z04)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406002)和西南区域强降水预报创新团队(川气函[2013]328 号)共同资助
引用文本:
毛冬艳,曹艳察,朱文剑,田付友,郝丽萍,康岚,张涛,2018.西南地区短时强降水的气候特征分析[J].气象,44(8):1042-1050.
MAO Dongyan,CAO Yancha,ZHU Wenjian,TIAN Fuyou,HAO Liping,KANG Lan,ZHANG Tao,2018.Climatic Characteristics of Short Time Severe Precipitation in Southwest China[J].Meteor Mon,44(8):1042-1050.