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气象:2018,44(7):902-910
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两类短时强降水天气边界层气象要素变化特征
吴进,李琛,于波,卢冰,王庆元
(中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京 100089; 京津冀环境气象预报预警中心,北京 100089; 北京市气象台,北京 100089 北京市气象服务中心,北京 100089; 天津市气象台,天津 300074)
Study on the Variation Characteristics of Meteorological Elements in the Boundary Layer of Two Types of Short Time Heavy Rainfall
WU Jin,LI Chen,YU Bo,LU Bing,WANG Qingyuan
(Institute of Beijing Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing 100089; Beijing Tianjin Hebei Prediction and Early Warning Center for Environmental Meteorology, Beijing 100089; Beijing Municipal Weather Forecast Center, Beijing 100089; Beijing Municipal Meteorological Service Center, Beijing 100089; Tianjin Meteorological Observatory, Tianjin 300074)
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投稿时间:2017-02-22    修订日期:2018-02-08
中文摘要: 本文基于2013—2015年北京铁塔的气象观测数据,结合VDRAS、地面自动站、NCEP再分析资料等,将短时强降水个例分为地面辐合线型和地面辐合线型两类,并着重对两类短时强降水天气的边界层气象要素演变特征进行分析,寻找短时强降水发生的预报信号。结果表明:根据铁塔气象要素变化基本法预判地面辐合线型强降水的发生;而铁塔气象要素变化对地面辐合线型短时强降水发生具有一定预报指示意义,地面辐合线型在强降水发生前1 h,温度和位温减小,温度变率显著增大,最大达每分钟下降0.35℃;在强降水开始前3 h,地面至325 m比湿增大,降水开始前20 min,比湿减小3.5 g·kg-1;低空风切变在强降水开始前20 min增大到“强烈”到“严重”程度,比湿跟低空风切变的提前量约为10~20 min。因此,预报业务中关注铁塔气象要素及衍生物理量演变,对地面辐合线型短时强降水预报预警有一定指示意义。
Abstract:This article focuses on the application of the 2013-2015 Beijing meteorological tower data and derivative data, combined with conventional and unconventional observation data, such as VDRAS, automatic weather stations and NCEP reanalysis data. According to the evolution of the boundary layer elements, short time heavy precipitation is divided into two types, one has the surface convergence line and the other has not. And we also focus on the evolution of the boundary layer elements of the two types short time rainfalls to find the forecasting signal before heavy rainfalls occur in summer, which could provide reference for the short time heavy rainfall forecasting. The results show that varivation of the elements of the meteorological power can not predict for the occurrence of the non surface convergence line type, but it has certain guiding significance to the short time severe rainfall of the surface convergence line type. Before such type of heavy rain occurs, the temperature and potential temperature begin to decrease obviously and decline rate gradually increases. The temperature change rate gradually increases to -0.35℃ per minute. The specific humidity increases significantly 3 h before the start of the heavy rainfall below 325 m. When it begins to rain, the specific humidity decreases about 3.5 g·kg-1 during 20 min before the rainfall begins. The low level wind shear is up to the strong degree. But the specific humidity and low level wind shear can show the signals at 10-20 min lead time. So the evolution of tower meteorological elements and the physical quantities have indicative meaning for the forecasting and warning of short time rainfall of surface convergence line type.
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基金项目:中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2016 001)资助
引用文本:
吴进,李琛,于波,卢冰,王庆元,2018.两类短时强降水天气边界层气象要素变化特征[J].气象,44(7):902-910.
WU Jin,LI Chen,YU Bo,LU Bing,WANG Qingyuan,2018.Study on the Variation Characteristics of Meteorological Elements in the Boundary Layer of Two Types of Short Time Heavy Rainfall[J].Meteor Mon,44(7):902-910.