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文章摘要
引用本文:漆梁波,徐珺.2018.豫北“7·9”特大暴雨的短期预报分析和反思.气象,44(1):1-14.
豫北“7·9”特大暴雨的短期预报分析和反思
Rethink on Short Range Forecast of the 9 July Severe Rainstorm in Northern Henan
投稿时间:2017-05-24  最后修改时间:2017-08-21
DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.01.001
中文关键词: 特大暴雨, 短期预报, 预报反思, 高分辨区域数值模式
英文关键词: severe rainstorm, short range forecast, forecast rethink, high resolution regional model
基金项目:中国气象局暴雨专家创新团队专项(CMACXTD002 3)、中国气象局气象预报业务关键技术发展专项[YBGJXM(2017)1A]和上海市气象局研究型专项(YJ201601)共同资助
作者单位
漆梁波 上海中心气象台上海 200030 
徐珺 国家气象中心北京 100081 
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中文摘要:
      对2016年7月9日豫北特大暴雨的短期预报决策过程进行了总结和反思,主要结论如下:(1) 此次降水过程存在明显的对流云团之间的合并及组织化过程,这些过程涉及中小尺度系统相互作用。作为重要业务参考的全球模式(包括确定性和集合预报)均未能提前(24或12 h)对此次暴雨过程做出有效预报或提示。(2) 高分辨区域模式和快速同化更新系统大多表现出更好的预报能力,可提前12或6 h提示预报员豫北地区有暴雨或大暴雨。(3) 特大暴雨过程预报失败的主要原因是预报员过份依赖全球模式的结果,缺乏使用高分辨区域模式产品的经验或对这些模式产品信心不足。高分辨区域模式在投入业务运行之前,需加强对预报员的系统性培训,才能更有效地发挥这些模式产品的业务效能。(4) 在现有QPF业务流程中逐渐增加概率产品的使用,既符合新技术的发展趋势,也可望对暴雨或极端降水的预报提供更有效支撑。
英文摘要:
      After a careful rethink on short range forecast of the northern Henan severe rainstorm on 9 July 2016, we found that there existed obvious alternate growing and merging of convective clouds during this rainstorm event involving interaction of meso small scale systems. As important guidance, all global mo dels, including deterministic and ensemble ones, failed to provide effective forecasts or hints in advance for this event. High resolution regional models and rapid refresh systems performed better and could help forecasters to predict heavy or very heavy rainfall events in northern Henan 12 h or 6 h earlier. Reasons for the forecast failure of this severe rainstorm process are that forecasters relied too much on global models and were lack of experience on high resolution model application or confidence in products from high resolution models. Only more comprehensive trainings on high resolution model for forecasters before putting them into use could forecasters maximize their operational potential. Applying more probabilistic products gradually in QPF decision process would meet the trend of technological advance and could provide more effective supports for heavy or extreme rainfall forecasting.
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