###
气象:2017,43(12):1517-1526
本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
四川盆地区域性暴雨时空变化特征及其前兆信号研究
王春学1,2,马振峰1,王佳津3,张顺谦1,秦宁生1,邓彪1
(1 四川省气候中心,成都 610072 2 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都 610072 3 四川省气象台,成都 610072)
Characteristics of Regional Rainstorm in Sichuan Basin and Its Precursor Signal
WANG Chunxue1,2,MA Zhenfeng1,WANG Jiajin3,ZHANG Shunqian1,QIN Ningsheng1.DENG Biao1
(1 Sichuan Climate Centre, Chengdu 610072 2 Heavy Rain and Drought Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan, Chengdu 610072 3 Sichuan Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072)
摘要
图/表
参考文献
相似文献
本文已被:浏览 400次   下载 198
投稿时间:2016-10-09    修订日期:2017-10-30
中文摘要: 利用1961—2015年四川盆地逐日降水量资料、NOAA海表温度资料、青藏高原积雪资料,采用多锥度 奇异值分解等方法,研究了四川盆地区域性暴雨的时空变化特征,并对其前兆信号进行了初步探讨。结果表明:四川盆地区域性暴雨可以分为三种类型,其中盆西型出现频率最高,盆东北型次之,盆南型相对较少。四川盆地区域性暴雨年际变化中准3 a周期最为显著,典型循环体现了盆西型区域性暴雨“偏少—调整—偏多”的年际变化过程。年代际变化中准16 a周期最明显,典型循环表现为盆东北型和盆南型的交替演变。通过MTM SVD协同变化分析,发现在盆西型区域性暴雨的准3 a周期循环中,前冬ENSO事件和前冬青藏高原积雪日数是其显著的异常前兆信号。在年代际的准16 a振荡过程中,前冬太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)是盆东北型和盆南型区域性暴雨的异常前兆信号。
Abstract:The regional rainstorm of Sichuan Basin is classified using the data from meteorological stations in Sichuan Basin, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, NOAA SST data, snow days of Tibet Plateau, and the method of MTM SVD (multi taper method singular value decomposition). Not only the characteristics of spatio temporal variation but also the previous signal is discussed. The results show that the regional rainstorm of Sichuan Basin can be divided into three types, which are the west basin, northeast basin and south basin respectively. The most significant interannual variation is the quasi 3 year cycle which reflects the abnormal circulation process of west basin type with the weak adjustment strong pattern. The quasi 16 year cycle is the obvious interdecadal signal which embodies the exception evolution of the northeast basin and south basin. Through the analysis of cooperative change, it is found that the ENSO event and snow cover days in the previous winter are the strong precursor signal in the quasi 3 year cycle. In the quasi 16 year oscillation process, the PDO (Pacific decadal oscillation) acts as a previous signal of the northeast basin type and south basin type.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P463    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41275097)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306022)、高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室(2017-青年-08)和川气课题(重08-04)共同资助
引用文本:
王春学,马振峰,王佳津,张顺谦,秦宁生,邓彪,2017.四川盆地区域性暴雨时空变化特征及其前兆信号研究[J].气象,43(12):1517-1526.
WANG Chunxue,MA Zhenfeng,WANG Jiajin,ZHANG Shunqian,QIN Ningsheng,DENG Biao,2017.Characteristics of Regional Rainstorm in Sichuan Basin and Its Precursor Signal[J].Meteor Mon,43(12):1517-1526.