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气象:2017,43(11):1439-1445
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2017年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验
任宏昌
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecasts by T639,ECMWF and Japan Models from June to August 2017
REN Hongchang
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2017-10-20    修订日期:2017-11-03
中文摘要: 对2017年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本(文中简称JP)数值模式的中期预报产品进行了分析和检验,结果表明:三个模式对欧亚中高纬环流形势的调整和演变均具有较好的预报性能,能较准确地反映出欧亚地区中高纬大尺度环流形势的演变和调整,表现出较好的中期预报能力。ECMWF和T639模式在中期时效能够较好地对副热带高压的南北摆动和东西移动趋势进行预报,其中ECMWF的预报偏差更小且模式对于盛夏副热带高压西伸脊点的预报优于初夏。ECMWF和T639模式对全国大部分地区温度预报偏低,ECMWF模式的预报效果最好,而JP模式温度预报偏差相对较大,各模式对温度的升降波动预报较为准确。对强台风天鸽,三个模式对台风强度的预报均偏弱,其中ECMWF模式相对更准确地把握了台风的强度变化和移动路径,综合预报效果最好。
Abstract:The performance of medium range forecasts is verified and compared for the T639, ECMWF and Japan models from June to August 2017. The results show that all of the three models could well predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over middle and high latitudes in Eurasia, of which ECMWF model performs the best. ECMWF and T639 models have good performance in predicting activity of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the ECMWF model shows better skill. The prediction bias of the west ridge of WPSH reduces from early summer to late summer. The T639 and ECMWF models underestimates the temperature over most of China at 850 hPa, and the JP model overestimates the temperature over most of China. In southern China, three models have smaller bias of temperature prediction than that in northern China. ECMWF model has better performance than T639 and Japan models. As far as Typhoon Hato (1713) is concerned, ECMWF model performs better in predicting the track, intensity and landing position, although the predicted strength is weaker. The T639 model shows a poor skill in the prediction of Typhoon Hato.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P459    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家科技支撑项目(2015BAC03B07)、国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41205058)和国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430203)共同资助
引用文本:
任宏昌,2017.2017年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,43(11):1439-1445.
REN Hongchang,2017.Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecasts by T639,ECMWF and Japan Models from June to August 2017[J].Meteor Mon,43(11):1439-1445.