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气象:2017,43(10):1287-1295
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2016年登陆和影响福建台风成因分析及预测
池艳珍,何芬,唐振飞
(福建省气候中心,福州 350001)
Cause Analysis and Forecast Assessment on Typhoon Landing and Impacting Fujian in 2016
CHI Yanzhen,HE Fen,TANG Zhenfei
(Fujian Climate Centre, Fuzhou 350001)
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投稿时间:2017-01-24    修订日期:2017-07-25
中文摘要: 2016年共有3个台风登陆、4个台风影响福建,呈前少后多分布,登陆台风偏多,灾害影响重。分析表明:(1)2016年以来赤道中东太平洋海温距平的演变及大气环流异常响应是造成影响福建台风呈前少后多分布及登陆台风偏多的主要原因。(2)7月下旬至8月中旬和9月上旬至中旬西太平洋台风群发,“莫兰蒂”和“马勒卡”一周内相继登陆和影响福建,是季风槽增强或持续偏强的结果,且季风槽呈现显著的低频变化特征。(3)2016年西北太平洋生成和影响福建的台风与热带大气季节内振荡关系密切,近7成生成于MJO第5~7位相。(4)基于大气低频变化理论的延伸期预报填补了月—季预测和中短期天气预报之间的空白。
Abstract:In 2016, there were three landing and four impacting typhoons seen in Fujian Province, showing the non uniform temporal distribution and serious disasters. Analysis indicates that main causation of Fujian typhoon distribution in 2016 is due to the evolution of SSTA (sea surface temperature anomaly) over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and the response of atmospheric circulation. The enhancing or stronger monsoon trough favors the typhoon group genesis from late July to mid August over northwestern Pacific and the active influence of Typhoons “Meranti” and “Malakas” within a weak in mid September, characterized by significant low frequency variability. Statistical analysis also demonstrates that the number of typhoon genesis and impacting Fujian may be strongly linked to the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. Nearly 70% typhoons are generated when MJO is active during phases 5-7. Prediction assessment suggests that the extended range forecast based on the atmospheric low frequency theory could fill the gap between monthly seasonal term prediction and short medium term weather forecast.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P461    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41575052)和中国气象局气候变化专项(CCFS201619)共同资助
引用文本:
池艳珍,何芬,唐振飞,2017.2016年登陆和影响福建台风成因分析及预测[J].气象,43(10):1287-1295.
CHI Yanzhen,HE Fen,TANG Zhenfei,2017.Cause Analysis and Forecast Assessment on Typhoon Landing and Impacting Fujian in 2016[J].Meteor Mon,43(10):1287-1295.