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气象:2017,43(10):1232-1240
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一种基于对流云特征温度判别的雷暴解释预报算法
王秀成,邢杉,赵志军,巩敏莹,李艳芳
(中国民用航空西北地区空中交通管理局气象中心,西安 710082)
A Thunderstorm Explanation Forecast Algorithm Based on Convective Cloud Characteristic Temperature Judgment
WANG Xiucheng,XING Shan,ZHAO Zhijun,GONG Minying,LI Yanfang
(Meteorological Centre, Northwest Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau of Civil Aviation of China, Xi’an 710082)
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投稿时间:2016-06-03    修订日期:2017-05-12
中文摘要: 为了满足航空用户对于高效率高分辨率雷暴短期预报产品的需求,提出了一种基于对流云特征温度的雷暴解释预报算法。该算法根据模式资料计算得到对流云云顶和云底温度、-20℃层和-10℃层高度等要素,利用相关判据直接得到格点雷暴预报产品。利用2012—2014年中国35个机场的雷暴观测资料和同期美国全球预报系统(Global Forecast System,GFS)模式预报资料对该算法进行了检验,风险评分和技巧评分均表明该算法在上述机场具有较高的雷暴预报水平和正技巧,时间精度可达±1.5 h。同时利用2014年中国5个机场人工发布的终端机场天气预报(Terminal Aerodrome Forecast,TAF)与算法进行比较,结果表明:算法在较TAF至少提前8 h发布的情况下,风险评分略低于TAF,探测概率达到或远高于TAF。该算法满足了目前航空用户对于高时间和高空间分辨率雷暴短期预报产品的需求。
Abstract:A thunderstorm explanation forecast algorithm based on convective cloud characteristic temperature is proposed in order to satisfy aviation needs for efficient, high spatial and high temporal resolution short term thunderstorm forecasts. The algorithm is based on convective cloud top and base temperatures, -20℃ and -10℃ isothermal layer geopotential heights. Forecast performance of the algorithm, which is evaluated using the 2012-2014 observations at 35 airports in China and Global Forecast System (GFS) history products, shows high threat scores, positive skill scores and ±1.5 h forecast time accuracy in all airports. Meanwhile, the algorithm is compared with forecast performance of Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) issued in 2014 by five airport weather services in China. The results show threat scores of the algorithm are a little lower than TAF, and probability of detection equal to or much higher than TAF in the condition issued at least 8 h earlier than TAF. Thunderstorm forecast products based on the algorithm can meet the needs of aviation users.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P413,457    文献标志码:
基金项目:中国民用航空局空中交通管理局科技项目“一种新的雷暴解释预报算法的研究与应用”资助
引用文本:
王秀成,邢杉,赵志军,巩敏莹,李艳芳,2017.一种基于对流云特征温度判别的雷暴解释预报算法[J].气象,43(10):1232-1240.
WANG Xiucheng,XING Shan,ZHAO Zhijun,GONG Minying,LI Yanfang,2017.A Thunderstorm Explanation Forecast Algorithm Based on Convective Cloud Characteristic Temperature Judgment[J].Meteor Mon,43(10):1232-1240.