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气象:2017,43(9):1052-1063
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安徽冬季地面降水相态的判别研究
余金龙,朱红芳,邱学兴,曹卫卫
(安徽省气象台,合肥 230031)
A Method to Determine Winter Precipitation Type in Anhui
YU Jinlong,ZHU Hongfang,QIU Xuexin,CAO Weiwei
(Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031)
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投稿时间:2016-01-11    修订日期:2017-05-27
中文摘要: 文章对安徽省2000—2009年11月至次年4月的雨、雨夹雪、雪和冻雨四类降水相态样本的温度、相对湿度和假相当位温分布特征进行了分析。从地面到500 hPa,气温、相对湿度和假相当位温对平原、山区的地面降水相态的区分能力均逐渐减弱,且相对湿度对降水相态的区分能力远弱于气温和假相当位温。在同一气压层上,假相当位温与气温对平原地区地面降水相态的区分能力相当,而假相当位温在某些气压层上对山区降水相态的区分能力略优于气温。在不同气压层上,平原地区各降水相态的气温和假相当位温均接近正态分布,山区假相当位温相对于气温更接近正态分布。因此假相当位温更适合作为地面降水相态的判别因子。选取地面到500 hPa共6个气压层(山区5个)的假相当位温作为地面降水相态的判别因子建立多级判别方程,利用2010年的降水相态样本对所建立的多级判别方程进行独立性检验。结果表明:多级判别方程对雨、雨夹雪或雪、冻雨的区分能力较好,对雨夹雪与雪的区分能力相对较弱。利用T639模式资料对两个降水相态复杂个例进行预报检验,多级判别方程能较好地预报雨雪转换的时间及区域,对降水相态的预报具有较高的参考价值。
Abstract:Using the observation data from November to the next April in 2000-2009, the temperature, relative humidity and pseudo equivalent potential temperature profile characteristics associated with different precipitation types in winter including rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain were analyzed. The results demonstrated that the distinguishing ability for temperature, relative humidity and pseudo equivalent potential temperature profile decreases with altitude from surface to 500 hPa in plain and mountainous areas. In addition, the distinguishing ability for relative humidity in different precipitation types is much weaker than the other two. At the same pressure level, the distinguishing ability of temperature and pseudo equivalent potential temperature is comparative for precipitation type in plain areas, and the distinguishing ability of the latter is better in mountainous areas at some pressure levels. At different pressure levels, the temperature and pseudo equivalent potential temperature are close to normal distribution for different precipitation types in plain areas, and the latter is closer to normal distribution than the former in mountainous areas. Therefore, pseudo equivalent potential temperature is more suitable for the factors to distinguish precipitation types. The multilevel discriminating equation was set up based on pseudo equivalent potential temperature at 6 levels (5 levels in mountainous areas) from surface to 500 hPa. In addition, the independent tests were conducted using the sample of precipitation type in 2010. The results indicated that the discriminating equation could distinguish rain, sleet or snow, freezing rain, but it is poor when distinguishing sleet and snow. The forecast verification based on T639 model data demonstrated that the equation can forecast the change time and region between rain and snow better. It is worth applying to operational prediction of winter precipitation type, and has been used in operations at Anhui Meteorological Observatory since 2011.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P457    文献标志码:
基金项目:安徽省气象局面上项目(KM2011022)和公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006001)共同资助
引用文本:
余金龙,朱红芳,邱学兴,曹卫卫,2017.安徽冬季地面降水相态的判别研究[J].气象,43(9):1052-1063.
YU Jinlong,ZHU Hongfang,QIU Xuexin,CAO Weiwei,2017.A Method to Determine Winter Precipitation Type in Anhui[J].Meteor Mon,43(9):1052-1063.