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气象:2017,43(8):987-997
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基于形状匹配的雷达临近预报误差评价计算方法
曹春燕1,3,陈凯2,陈元昭1,3,刘军2,陈劲松2,贺佳佳1,3,陈训来1,3
(1 深圳市气象局,深圳 518040 2 中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院,深圳 518040 3 深圳南方强天气研究重点实验室,深圳 518040)
A Novel Method of Error Evaluation for Radar Nowcasting Based on Shape Matching
CAO Chunyan1,3,CHEN Kai2,CHEN Yuanzhao1,3,LIU Jun2,CHEN Jinsong2,HE Jiajia1,3,CHEN Xunlai1,3
(1 Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong, Shenzhen 518040 2 Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518040 3 Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Severe Weather in South China, Shenzhen 518040)
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投稿时间:2016-11-26    修订日期:2017-03-07
中文摘要: 目前对于降雨预报方法的研究比较多,而找到更好的方法来利用实测数据对预报产品进行有效的验证也很值得研究。在实际气象预报中,降雨往往是区域性的,呈面状分布,基于降雨区域的形状验证更为重要也更有检验价值,针对形状检验的难点和特点,本论文提出了一种0~3 h QPF雷达降雨预报综合检验方法和量化指标,包括形状验证和定量验证,并针对广东省2016年4月22日08:30—11:24一次典型持续降雨过程的雷达降水预测进行了分级检验评价与误差分析。该方法也一定程度上解决了时间和空间尺度的数据质量参差不齐和精度控制的问题,其中形状检验指标与常规定量检验结果基本相符,雷达0.5和1 h降雨预报的形状检验指标TSshape、 PODshape、 FARshape指标分别为40%以上、40%以上、30%以下,预报区域重叠比例Ratiop、实况区域重叠比例Ratiot和杰卡德系数分别为40%以上、80%以上、40%以上,该指标能够较好地反映雷达降雨预报的效果。
Abstract:The relatively conventional pattern forecast method of local short time rainfall is mainly based on satellite images and radar echo extrapolation, but it is also worth finding a better method which can make good use of ground observation data to effectively test the radar forecast products. In the actual weather forecast, rainfall is often characteristiced regional and planar spatial distribution. So the test about shape of rainfall area is more important and more significant. In order to solve the problem in shape test with variety of difficulties and characteristics. This paper proposed a comprehensive evaluating method of 0-3 h QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) radar rainfall forecast and quantitative indexes of shape test. We also did some experiments including grading test and error analysis on a typical radar forecast of continuous raining process in Guangdong Province in 08:30-11:24 BT 22 April 2016. To some extent, this method also has a good solution of poor data quality and accuracy control in temporal and spatial scale. The TSshape, PODshape, FARshape, Ratiop, Ratiot, Jaccard of a half hour and 1 h radar rainfall forecast shape test are above 40%, above 40%, below 30%, above 40%, above 80%, above 40% respectively. The experimental results reflect the effect of radar rainfall forecast well and show that the indexes of shape test are basically consistent with conventional quantitative indexes.
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基金项目:广东省科技厅项目(2014A020218014和2016A020223016)共同资助
引用文本:
曹春燕,陈凯,陈元昭,刘军,陈劲松,贺佳佳,陈训来,2017.基于形状匹配的雷达临近预报误差评价计算方法[J].气象,43(8):987-997.
CAO Chunyan,CHEN Kai,CHEN Yuanzhao,LIU Jun,CHEN Jinsong,HE Jiajia,CHEN Xunlai,2017.A Novel Method of Error Evaluation for Radar Nowcasting Based on Shape Matching[J].METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY,43(8):987-997.