首页  |  简介  |  影响因子  |  投稿征稿  |  期刊订阅  |  编委会  |  文件下载  |  预出版
 
文章摘要
引用本文:杨波,郑永光,蓝渝,周康辉,刘鑫华,毛旭.2017.国家级强对流天气综合业务支撑体系建设.气象,43(7):845-855.
国家级强对流天气综合业务支撑体系建设
Development and Construction of the Supporting Platform for National Severe Convective Weather Forecasting and Service
投稿时间:2016-10-31  最后修改时间:2017-05-16
DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.07.008
中文关键词: 强对流,短期预报,短时预报,临近预报,监测技术,支撑平台
英文关键词: severe convective weather, short-range forecast, short-time forecast, nowcasting, monitoring technology, supporting platform
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430106)、国家自然科学基金项目(41375051)和公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406002)共同资助
作者单位
杨波 国家气象中心北京 100081 
郑永光 国家气象中心北京 100081 
蓝渝 国家气象中心北京 100081 
周康辉 国家气象中心北京 100081 
刘鑫华 国家气象中心北京 100081 
毛旭 国家气象中心北京 100081 
摘要点击次数: 281
全文下载次数: 142
中文摘要:
      国家级强对流天气预报业务正在从以短期预报为主调整到短期和短时预报并重的业务格局。文章从强对流天气预报技术发展与服务需求的角度,重点介绍了国家级强对流天气综合业务支撑平台及其核心技术。该平台以气象数据组织和图形化表达两个核心要求为牵引,发展了数据分析处理系统、自动气象绘图系统和WEB检索与显示系统。数据分析处理系统基于多源观测资料、中尺度数值预报和全球数值预报,发展了集约、高效的强对流天气监测和临近预报、短时预报和短期预报等数据分析处理技术,是整个平台的核心;主要核心技术包括:从不稳定与能量、水汽、抬升与垂直风切变等条件出发,以归纳总结的分类强对流天气概念模型为基础的分类强对流短期预报分析技术;应用“配料法”发展的分类分等级的强对流天气客观概率预报技术;强对流短时预报技术包括高分辨率数值预报释用、多模式预报集成、对流尺度分析、实况和模式探空分析等多项技术,重点实现了从过去3 h实况到未来12 h预报的无缝隙衔接;强对流的监测和临近预报技术在基于多源资料的强对流天气实况与强对流系统监测技术基础上,发展了基于雷达特征量、强对流实况、各类强对流指数和预警信号等多源信息的报警技术。自动气象绘图系统实现了高效、便捷地接入多种数据、自动进行数据分析和制图等多项功能。在预报服务方面,基于WebGIS发展了县级分类强对流预警信号和国家级分类强对流预警预报产品共享技术,实现强对流短时预报业务的高交互性与上下互通的功能。
英文摘要:
      The focus of national severe weather forecasting is transforming from short range forecast to the pattern of the coexistence of short range forecasts and short time forecasts. For the requirements of severe weather forecast techniques and service, this paper presents the development of national severe weather integrated platform. Based on the core requirements of meteorological data organization and plotting, the development of data analysis system, meteorological auto plot system and WEB search and display system are developed. The data analysis system, as the core of the whole platform, integrates various data, including muti source monitoring data and mesoscale NWP model forecast and global NWP model forecast, and develops the data processing technology for severe weather monitoring and nowcasting, short range forecast and short time forecast. The key technology includes: starting from considering the unstable energy, water vapor, uplift, and vertical wind shear, the classified short range analysis and prediction technology summarizes conceptual models for different types of severe weather. The severe weather tendency forecast part guided by the severe weather condition analysis, generates a classified severe weather forecasting model and products. The short term forecast test part integrates the applications of mososcale NWP, ensemble prediction, meso analyses and sounding analysis, and highlightes the seamless link between the observation in the past 3 h and the prediction of the future 12 h. Based on the existing convective system monitoring technologies, the auto alarm products of radar features, severe weather events, convective indices and alarm signals are developed to improve the convective weather monitoring and nowcasting technology. Meteorological auto plot system includes the functions of data analysis, automatically plotting, etc. In the term of service, the WebGis tech is applied to share the national products to the county level weather stations and vice versa.
查看全文   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
关闭
 

主办单位:国家气象中心 单位地址:北京中关村南大街46号
电话:010-68407936,010-58993789,010-68407336,010-58995414 传真:010-58995051 邮编:100081 Email: qxqk@cma.gov.cn
本系统由北京勤云科技发展有限公司设计