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气象:2017,43(6):641-652
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强对流天气预报的一些基本问题
郑永光1,陶祖钰2,俞小鼎3
(1 国家气象中心,北京 100081 2 北京大学,北京 100871 3 中国气象局干部培训学院,北京 100081)
Some Essential Issues of Severe Convective Weather Forecasting
ZHENG Yongguang1,TAO Zuyu2,YU Xiaoding3
(1 National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 2 Peking University, Beijing 100871 3 China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2017-02-22    修订日期:2017-04-05
中文摘要: 对深厚湿对流(业务中通常称为雷暴)和强对流天气的发展条件和机理(尤其龙卷发展条件和机理)的科学理解是做好对其预报的基础。本文首先分析了对流有效位能和对流抑制能量与抬升气块温湿状态的关系、对流温度的物理意义、对流发展所需的水汽条件;然后提出了我国重大强对流天气的定义,给出了强对流天气时空分布的一些规律、极端强降水与地面露点的关系、雷暴大风产生机制、冰雹融化层高度与湿球温度之间的物理联系、超级单体风暴和龙卷的环境条件、龙卷的形成机理等;最后对涡度和风矢端图及其与龙卷、中气旋发展的关系进行了分析说明。文中列举的对各个概念不尽相同的解释和阈值以及我们的一些认识和理解,可供相关人员学习和比较。
Abstract:Completely understanding the conditions and mechanisms of deep moist convection (commonly referred to as “thunderstorm” in operational forecasting) and severe convective weather (especially tornadoes) is the basis for better forecasting them. This paper first analyzes the relationships between convective available potential energy and convective inhibition energy and temperature and humidity of lifted air parcel, physical significance of convection temperature, and water vapor amounts for deep moist convection, and then further proposes the definition of significant severe convective weather in China, presenting some spatio temporal characteristics of severe convective weather, the relationship between extreme rainfall and surface dew point temperature, the producing mechanism of convectively high winds, the physical significance of wet bulb temperature closely related to hail melting layer, the environmental conditions for supercell storms and tornadoes, and the formation mechanism of mesocyclones and tornadoes. Finally, understandings of vorticity and hodograph, and their relationship with mesocyclones and tornadoes are given. Different interpretations and threshold values of some concepts and variables listed in this paper and our understandings are provided for readers to study and compare.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P45    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41375051)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406002)和国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430106)共同资助
引用文本:
郑永光,陶祖钰,俞小鼎.强对流天气预报的一些基本问题[J].气象,2017,43(6):641-652.
ZHENG Yongguang,TAO Zuyu,YU Xiaoding.Some Essential Issues of Severe Convective Weather Forecasting[J].METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY,2017,43(6):641-652.