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气象:2017,43(5):620-627
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体感温度对夏季气象负荷率变化的影响研究——以湖北省黄石市为例
尹炤寅1,2, 范进进3, 陈幼姣3, 李大文4, 张立明3
(1.北京市气象服务中心, 北京 100089;2.中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京 100089;3.湖北省黄石市气象局, 黄石 435002;4.国网湖北省电力公司黄石供电公司, 黄石 435000)
Impact of Sensible Temperature on Summer Weather-Sensitive Power Load Rate in Huangshi City
YIN Zhaoyin1,2, FAN Jinjin3, CHEN Youjiao3, LI Dawen4, ZHANG Liming3
(1.Beijing Meteorological Service Center, Beijing 100089;2.Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing 100089;3.Huangshi Meteorological Office of Hubei Province, Huangshi 435002;4.State Grid Huangshi Power Supply Company of Hubei Province, Huangshi 435000)
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投稿时间:2016-01-04    修订日期:2016-08-20
中文摘要: 本文以黄石市2007—2013年逐日电力负荷为研究对象,利用同期气象资料计算体感温度数据及舒适度等级,并以此对电力负荷进行分解,进而讨论体感温度对夏季气象负荷率变化的影响。结果表明:(1)利用体感温度及舒适度等级可对电力负荷进行更精细的分解,且体感温度同气象负荷率具有最高关联度;(2)研究时段内黄石市逐日最大电力负荷总体呈线性增长,但2008年金融危机期间电力负荷呈下降趋势;(3)2010年之前,工作日的气象负荷率高于节假日,但自2011年起,该现象出现反转,且差值逐渐增大;(4)研究时段内,体感温度高于22.9℃(工作日)或21.5℃(节假日)时,即会产生敏感负荷,而体感温度升高1℃最多可引起6%的气象负荷率增加。
Abstract:Based on the daily sensible temperature in Huangshi City, Hubei Province from 2007 to 2013, the trend of electric load rate and its response to the meteorology factors were discussed. The results showed that the sensible temperature and the human comfort index have good applicability in analyzing the impact of weather factors on the electric load rate, and the sensible temperature is shown to be the highest correlation factor. As to the power load rate, it has a linear growth from 2007 to 2013 but decreases during the financial crisis. What’s more, the meteorological load rate in working days was higher before 2011. Since then, the phenomenon has appeared to reverse, and the difference has increased. Finally, it is found that the sensible temperature higher than 22.9℃ (weekdays) or 21.5℃ (holidays) would produce the sensitive load, while 1℃ increase of sensible temperature could bring up to 6% additional meteorological load rate.
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基金项目:北京市科技计划课题(Z151100002115045)和黄石市气象局2015年度自立科研课题(201507)共同资助
引用文本:
尹炤寅,范进进,陈幼姣,李大文,张立明.体感温度对夏季气象负荷率变化的影响研究——以湖北省黄石市为例[J].气象,2017,43(5):620-627.
YIN Zhaoyin,FAN Jinjin,CHEN Youjiao,LI Dawen,ZHANG Liming.Impact of Sensible Temperature on Summer Weather-Sensitive Power Load Rate in Huangshi City[J].METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY,2017,43(5):620-627.