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气象:2012,38(1):1-16
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西北太平洋台风活动与大气季节内振荡
(1.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学国家重点实验室,北京 100029;2.解放军理工大学气象学院,南京 211101)
Typhoon Activities over the Western North Pacific and Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation
(1.LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;2.Meteorological College, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101)
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投稿时间:2011-09-26    修订日期:2011-11-04
中文摘要: 本文综合介绍了大气季节内振荡与西北太平洋台风活动关系的最新研究结果。主要内容是:大气MJO的活动对西北太平洋台风的生成有比较明显的调制作用,在MJO的活跃期与非活跃期西北太平洋生成台风数的比例为2:1;而在MJO活跃期,对流中心位于赤道东印度洋(即MJO第2~3位相)与对流中心在西太平洋地区(即MJO第5~6位相)时的比例也为2:1。在MJO的不同位相,西太平洋地区的动力因子和热源分布形势有很明显不同。在第2~3位相,各种因子均呈现出抑制西太平洋地区对流及台风发展的态势;而在第5~6位相则明显促进对流的发生发展。这说明MJO在不断东移的过程中,将影响和改变大气环流形势,最终影响台风的生成。对多台风年与少台风年850 hPa的30~60 d低频动能距平合成分析表明,在多台风年有两个低频动能的大值区,其中最显著的是低频动能正异常位于菲律宾以东15°N以南的西北太平洋地区,此区域正好为季风槽所在的位置。而少台风年的情况与多台风年相反,从阿拉伯海东部经印度半岛、孟加拉湾一直到我国南海地区,都是低频动能的大值区,最大的低频动能中心位于印度半岛和我国南海南部;而菲律宾以东的西北太平洋是低频动能的负距平区,季风槽偏弱,对台风生成发展不利。200 hPa速度势场清楚表明,多台风年(少台风年)在菲律宾以东的西北太平洋上表现为高层辐散(辐合),增强(减弱)该地区的上升气流,有利于(不利于)台风的生成。大气季节内振荡(ISO)对西北太平洋台风路径影响的研究表明,大气ISO流场对台风路径预报有重要参考意义。其结果表明,台风生成时850 hPa低频气旋(LFC)的正涡度带(特别是最大正涡度线)走向往往预示着台风的未来走向;200 hPa的低频环流形势对台风的路径也有一定的指示作用,与200 hPa低频反气旋(LFAC)相联系的200 hPa强低频气流对台风起着引导气流的作用。
Abstract:In this paper, the modulation of atmospheric MJO on typhoon generation over the northwestern Pacific and its mechanism are first studied by using the MJO index. The results show that the MJO plays an important modulation role in typhoon generation over the northwestern Pacific: The proportion of typhoon number is 21 between active period and inactive period; During the MJO active period, the proportion of typhoon number is also 2:1 between phases 5-6 and phases 2-3 of MJO. The composite analyses of atmospheric circulation show that there are different circulation patterns over the northwestern Pacific in different phases of the MJO, which will affect the typhoon generation. In phases 5-6 (2-3), the dynamic factor and convective heating patterns over western Pacific are favorable (unfavorable) for typhoon generation. Then, the comparing analyses of the 30-60 day low frequency kinetic energy in lower and higher levels of the troposphere show that the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation over the northwestern Pacific has a clear impact on the typhoon generation. There is an evident positive (negative) anomaly area of 30-60 day low frequency kinetic energy in the more (less) typhoon years over the northwestern Pacific east of the Philippines, which means that strong (weak) atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over the northwestern Pacific is favorable (unfavorable) for typhoon generation. The analyses of 200 hPa velocity potential show that there is a clear divergence (convergence) pattern over the northwestern Pacific in the more (less) typhoon years, which is favorable (unfavorable) for typhoon generation. The modulation of the intraseasonal oscillation on the typhoon tracks over the northwestern Pacific is studied by observational data analyses. We classified the main classes of typhoon tracks into 5 types as straight west moving typhoons (I), northwest moving typhoons (II), recurving to Korea/west of Japan typhoons (III), landing on Japan typhoons (IV) and recurving to the east of Japan typhoons (V). Then the composite analyses of atmospheric low-frequency wind fields at 850, 500 and 200 hPa, corresponding to the typhoon forming date, for every typhoon track are completed. The analysis results of relationships between the low-frequency (ISO) wind fields and typhoon tracks have indicated that the typhoon tracks will be affected by wind pattern of the ISO. The low frequency positive vorticity belt (the maximum value line of cyclonic vorticity) associated with low-frequency cyclone (LFC) at 850 hPa is so closely related to the typhoon track, that the maximum value line (belt) of low frequency cyclonic vorticity can be an important factor to predicate the typhoon tracks over the northwestern Pacific. And the typhoon tracks will be also affected by the ISO circulation pattern at 200 hPa, particularly the strong low frequency wind associated with low frequency anticyclone (LFAC).
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基金项目:国家“973”项目(2007CB411805和2010CB950401)资助
引用文本:
李崇银,潘静,田华,杨辉,2012.西北太平洋台风活动与大气季节内振荡[J].气象,38(1):1-16.
Li Chongyin,Pan Jing,Tian Hua,Yang Hui,2012.Typhoon Activities over the Western North Pacific and Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation[J].Meteor Mon,38(1):1-16.