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气象:2011,37(10):1262-1269
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华南暴雨的气候特征及变化
伍红雨, 杜尧东, 秦鹏
(广东省气候中心,广州 510080)
Climate Characteristics and Variation of Rainstorm in South China
Wu Hongyu, DU Yaodong, Qin Peng
(Climate Center of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510080)
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投稿时间:2011-03-10    修订日期:2011-04-22
中文摘要: 利用华南110个测站1961—2008年逐日降水资料,采用线性趋势分析、Mann Kendall检验、小波分析、计算趋势系数等统计诊断方法,分析了华南年和前、后汛期的暴雨日数、强度、贡献率等的气候特征及变化。结果表明,近48年来,华南年平均暴雨日数的地理分布总体上呈由沿海向内陆递减的趋势,最多中心在广西东兴(14.9 d),最少中心在广西隆林(3.2 d)。华南的暴雨72%发生在汛期,其中前汛期占45%,后汛期占27%。华南平均年和前、后汛期暴雨日数呈微弱上升趋势,但不明显。年和前、后汛期暴雨日数具有明显的年际、年代际变化特征。华南平均年和前汛期的暴雨强度有微弱增加趋势,特别是2005年以来升幅明显,而后汛期暴雨强度有不明显减少趋势。华南年暴雨贡献率增加明显,而前、后汛期暴雨贡献率增加并不明显。小波分析表明:2000年以来,华南年、前、后汛期暴雨日数具有2~3 a和3~4 a准周期振荡。
Abstract:Based on the daily precipitation data at 110 observational stations during 1961-2008 in South China, the climatic characteristics and variation of torrential rain days, rainstorm intensity and contribution which is in annual, the first and second flood seasons in South China were studied by using statistical and diagnostic methods, such as linear regression analysis, Mann Kendall test, wavelet analysis and the computation of trend coefficients. The results have shown that the annual mean torrential rain days have a decreasing trend from coastal regions to inland in South China in recent 48 years, the highest center is in Dongxing of Guangxi (14.9 d), and the lowest center is in Longlin of Guangxi (3.2 d). About 72% of the total torrential rain days occurred in the flood seasons with about 45% in the first season and 27% in the second season. The mean torrential rain days have increased faintly in annual, the first and second flood seasons in South China, but it is not obvious. There are the characteristics of interannual and interdecadal changes. The mean rainstorm intensity has increased faintly in annual and in the first flood season in South China. However, since 2005 it has become obviously. The mean rainstorm intensity has declined in the second flood season, but it is not obvious. The annual mean rainstorm contribution to the total rainfall has increased obviously, but the mean contribution is not obvious in the first and second flood seasons. The wavelet analysis has shown that the changes of torrential rain days, intensity and contribution which is in annual, the first and second flood seasons in South China have two significant periods of 2-3 a and 3-4 a.
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基金项目:中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF 09 11和CCSF 09 03)和中国适应气候变化项目(ACCC)共同资助
引用文本:
伍红雨,杜尧东,秦鹏,2011.华南暴雨的气候特征及变化[J].气象,37(10):1262-1269.
Wu Hongyu,DU Yaodong,Qin Peng,2011.Climate Characteristics and Variation of Rainstorm in South China[J].Meteor Mon,37(10):1262-1269.