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气象:2011,37(2):129-135
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基础理论与预报实践
陶祖钰
(北京大学物理学院大气和海洋科学系, 北京 100871)
Basic Theories and Forecast Practices
TAO Zuyu
(Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871)
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投稿时间:2010-11-25    修订日期:2011-01-04
中文摘要: 总结了自2009年秋开始的全国预报员轮训的教学工作,强调基础知识、天气实践和长期积累的重要性。具体总结了Tlogp图和静止卫星云图分析应用及准地转理论教育中的基础性问题,并以暴雨预报思路为例讨论了如何将复杂问题简单化。最后就Q矢量、螺旋度和等熵位涡三个问题讨论了把简单问题复杂化所引起的后果。
Abstract:The teaching work in the forecaster training starting from the autumn of 2009 is summarized. The importance of basic meteorological knowledge, synoptic practices, and long term accumulation is emphasized. The applications of Tlogp diagram, geostationary satellite imagery, and quasigeostrophic theory are discussed detailedly. It is also discussed how to make complicated things simple based on the example of heavy rain forecasting. Finally, the issues induced by Q vector, helicity, and isoentropic potential vorticity are presented to demonstrate the problems caused by making simple things complicated.
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基金项目:行业专项GYHY(qx)2007-06004和GYHY200906003资助
引用文本:
陶祖钰,2011.基础理论与预报实践[J].气象,37(2):129-135.
TAO Zuyu,2011.Basic Theories and Forecast Practices[J].Meteor Mon,37(2):129-135.