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气象:2010,36(7):143-150
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中尺度天气的高空地面综合图分析
张小玲, 张涛, 刘鑫华, 周庆亮, 谌芸, 周晓霞, 郑永光, 赵素蓉
(国家气象中心, 北京 100081)
Mesoscale Weather Chart Analysis Techinique
ZHANG Xiaoling, ZHANG Tao, LIU Xinhua, ZHOU Qingliang, CHEN Yun, ZHOU Xiaoxia, ZHENG Yongguang, ZHAO Surong
(National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2009-11-26    修订日期:2010-01-15
中文摘要: 中尺度强天气的预报能力非常有限,一个重要原因是在业务预报中,缺乏对中 尺度对流天气发生的环境场条件和发生发展特征进行及时有效的分析。本文介绍了国家气象 中心正在试行的中尺度天气的天气图分析方法。中尺度天气的天气图分析主要利用探空资料 和数值预报相关参量资料,分析中尺度对流天气发生发展的环境场条件,包括高空综合图分 析和地面分析。在高空分析中重视风、温度、湿度、变温、变高的分析,并通过将不同等压 面上最能反映水汽、抬升、不稳定和垂直风切变状况的特征系统和特征线绘制在一张图上形 成综合图,以更直观的方式反映产生中尺度深厚对流系统发生发展潜势的高低空配置环境场 条件。地面分析包括气压、风、温度、湿度、对流天气现象和各类边界线(锋)的分析。国 家气象中心的强对流天气预报业务试验表明,中尺度天气的天气图分析已经成为强对流天气 潜势预报的重要依据。
Abstract:Mesoscale severe weather forecasting ability is limited, in some sense for a lack of valid analysis on mesoscale convective systems and its favorable environments. This paper introduces the mesoscale weather chart analysis techniq ue which was tested in the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Mesoscale weath er chart analyzes the favorable environmental conditions of mesoscale convective systems based on observational data and numerical weather forecast outputs. It includes upper air composite chart and surface chart. In the upper air composite ch art, by analyzing wind, temperature, moisture, temperature change and height change, the diagnostic systems and features in all the lower, middle and upper t roposphere isobaric layers are combined into one plot, which can clearly displa y the available environments and synoptic pattern of severe convective weather. In the surface chart, the analysis contents are pressure, wind, temperature, moi sture, convective weather phenomena and all kinds of boundaries (fronts). The te st in NMC shows that mesoscale weather chart analysis is a dependable means for severe convective weather outlook forecasting.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY200906003
引用文本:
张小玲,张涛,刘鑫华,周庆亮,谌芸,周晓霞,郑永光,赵素蓉,2010.中尺度天气的高空地面综合图分析[J].气象,36(7):143-150.
ZHANG Xiaoling,ZHANG Tao,LIU Xinhua,ZHOU Qingliang,CHEN Yun,ZHOU Xiaoxia,ZHENG Yongguang,ZHAO Surong,2010.Mesoscale Weather Chart Analysis Techinique[J].Meteor Mon,36(7):143-150.