ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Research on Meteorological Early Warning Method of Mountain Torrent Disaster Based on Fuzzy Evaluation Method
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Abstract:
A comprehensive meteorological risk early warning method for mountain torrent disasters is proposed using the fuzzy evaluation method in this paper. The method is based on the dynamic critical rainfall for mountain torrent early warning that considers soil water content saturation, then a correspondence between meteorological risk warning levels and fuzzy scores for mountain torrent disasters is established based on the fuzzy evaluation method. The weight algorithms are constructed respectively using the weighted average method, the coefficient of determination, and the relative error of peak flow. With this method , together with the fuzzy scores for meteorological risk warning calculated by using the precipitation forecasts from CMA-MESO, CMA-SH9, CMA-BJ and intelligent grid forecasting，the comprehensive meteorological risk level is determined. The results show that the hit rate of the comprehensive risk early warning results based on the fuzzy evaluation method is comparable to that of the CMA-BJ and higher than other models, the miss rate and false alarm rate are also comparable to those of the CMA-BJ and lower than other models,the TS scores are all higher than those of other models, through the application and verification of the mountain torrent disaster in Hengshui of Anyang River from 17 to 22 July 2021. This method can extend the lead time of mountain torrent prediction and improve the accuracy of early warning. This research result provides a new approach for the meteorological risk warning service of small watershed mountain torrent disasters in China.
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