ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
The Accuracy Evaluation of the Areal Rainfall for Reservoir Basin in Zhejiang Province based on Objective Consensus of Multi-model Forecasts
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Abstract:
Based on the 2019～2023 grid rainfall observation and multi-model forecasts in Zhejiang Province during the flood season from May to October, the accuracy evaluation of the areal rainfall for 32 large-sized reservoir basins in Zhejiang Province by multi-model Objective Consensus Forecasting (OCF) are evaluated based on various methods, which are further compared with those of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECF). The results demonstrate that the forecast accuracy of areal rainfall by OCF model is related to the catchment area of reservoir, the location of reservoir and the weather process that causes precipitation. On the whole, the forecast accuracy of areal rainfall by OCF model for Type I large-sized reservoirs is higher than that for Type II. The forecast error of OCF model mainly comes from the missing alarm. By reducing the missing alarm rate, the forecast accuracy of areal rainfall by OCF model for Type II large-sized reservoirs located in Central and East Zhejiang can be significantly improved, especially for the areal rainfall over 15 mm, which has obvious advantages over ECF model. Although the prediction accuracy of OCF model decreases gradually with the extension of forecast time, it has better effect than ECF model in the forecast of the areal rainfall over 6 mm. For different heavy precipitation processes in Zhejiang Province, OCF model has higher forecasting ability and better performance than ECF model for the reservoir basins mainly affected by Meiyu (typhoon) during Meiyu period (Typhoon period). The prediction accuracy of OCF model improves with the approach of forecast time during both Meiyu and Typhoon periods. However, owing to the influence of the predictability of typhoon tracks, the latter fluctuates dramatically and has obvious advantages over ECF model in most forecast time of 24～120 h. The above results can provide the necessary reference for the hydrometeorological service.
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Project Supported:
Joint Funds of the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. LZJMY24D050004 and No. LZJMY24D050007; Science and Technology Funds of the Zhejiang Meteorological Bureau under Grant No. 2023ZD12
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