ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Analysis of the Characteristics and Forecast Difficulties of Typhoon over the Western North Pacific in 2023
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Abstract:
Using the China Meteorological Administration"s best track data from 1949 to 2023, real-time operational forecast data on typhoon tracks and intensity for 2023 form National Meteorological Centre of CMA, and other sources of observations and models including the ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the main characteristics of typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific in 2023 are analyzed. The results show that in 2023, the number of typhoon formations and landfalls were both relatively low, while the extreme intensity of typhoons and landfall intensities were stronger. The genesis region of typhoons shifted eastward, with fewer typhoons in the South China Sea and fewer summer landfall typhoons. Typhoon landfalls were concentrated in specific areas, with typhoons penetrating further inland and causing widespread and severe damage. Although the Central Meteorological Observatory"s 24-hour typhoon track forecast error in 2023 reached a historic low, the track forecast errors within five days were generally higher than that of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). However, the intensity forecast errors for typhoons within 1-5 days lead time increased compared to last five years" levels, though still better than JMA and worse than JTWC. The challenges in typhoon forecasting in 2023 included the inland penetration and prolonged duration of Typhoon Doksuri, resulting in extreme precipitation in North China, the remnant vortex of Typhoon Haikui triggering extreme precipitation in South China, and the two sharp turns in the track of Typhoon Khanun. The causes of these challenging forecast events are analyzed in this study.
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