ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
Analysis of Main Characteristics and Difficulties in Typhoon Haikui(2311) Forecast
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National Meteorological Center

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    Abstract:

    Typhoon Haikui(2311) moved west-northwestward, repeatedly wobbled and forming a serpentine path. It strengthened into super typhoon category before landing on Taiwan Island, then moved slowly after entering the Taiwan Strait. After landing again, the residual vortex sustained for about 5days, and the precipitation duration and accumulated rainfall were large. Different models and different members of ensemble forecast also have large errors and uncertainties in forecasting the landing point and landfall intensity of Haikui, which brings great challenges to forecast correction. In this paper, using ECMWF, NCEP and CMA determinate and ensemble forecast data, we analyze the main characteristics of Haikui and four important difficulties in the process of operational forecast: there are large errors and differences in the forecast of typhoon track in the offshore waters of China, and the operational correction problems in the intensity forecast are affected by the uncertainty of the track forecast. The quantitative estimation of slow moving time caused by weak circulation guidance and terrain influence after typhoon crossing Taiwan Island and entering Taiwan Strait; Quantitative estimation of typhoon residual circulation maintenance time, moving path and precipitation influence after landfall weakening.

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History
  • Received:April 02,2024
  • Revised:September 13,2024
  • Adopted:September 18,2024
  • Online: September 18,2024
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