ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Verificaiton of CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9 Models for Precipitation Forecast in Eastern China
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Abstract:
The standard precipitation verificaiton method and the MODE spatial method were applied to evaluate the perfotmance of the CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9 models in predicting precipitation in the eastern region of China in 2021 in this article. The results show that two models have relatively high prediction skills for the second and third quarters, while the predition skills for the first and fourth quarters are relatively low. The regional numetical models have good application potential in warm season precipitation forecasting. Based on the TS and BIAS of the four quarters, the overall precipitation prediction skills of the CMA-MESO model in the third quarter are higher than those of the CMA-SH9 model, while in other seaons, the CMA-SH9 model has relatively higher prediction skills. Both models show a higher BIAS and a higher FAR in each quarter. Improving the shortcomings of these two aspects is an important way to enhance the precipitaiton prediction skills of regional models. The MODE verification results of the ’21.7’ rainstorm in Henan and typhoon ‘Fireworks’ show that CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9 models both have the characteristics of a large range of influence on the prediction of heavy rainfall above heavy rainstorm. CMA-MESO model is slightly better than CMA-SH9 model in forecasting the spatial pattern and influence range of heavy rainstorm precipitation objects.
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