ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Verification on Surface Wind Speed Forecast of Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System (SMS-WARR)
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Abstract:
In order to evaluate the wind speed forecast ability of Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System (SMS-WARR), the 10-m wind has been divided into three levels to analyze the error characteristics and corresponding causes of formation，especially during the period of typhoon influence. The results show that the SMS-WARR model overestimates the wind weaker than 6 grade and underestimates the wind stronger than or equal to 6 grade in each lead time； the wind speed forecast score will decrease in the wind weaker than 6 grade and increase in the wind stronger than or equal to 6 grade with lead time；forecast and observational wind speed have similar distribution between 5%~90% quartiles. During the period of typhoon influence , the area of strong breeze(6 grade) is much larger than the area where the strong breeze was actually recorded. The area of large deviation is mainly distributed in the area of forecast strong breeze. These error characteristics is speculated to be related to the cold and hot starting of the system and the weak predictability of the wind field during the rapid intensification phase of typhoons.
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Project Supported:
;Science and technology project of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co. LTD（5211DS18002P）；The National Key Research and Development Program of China（2018YFB1501104）；The National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)（2015CB452806）；The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)（41805088）；National Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(18ZR1449100)
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