ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Application and Verification of ECMWF 10m Wind Forecast for Coastal Zhejiang Province
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Abstract:
Using the observation data from Zhejiang coastal stations, the ECMWF 10 m wind forecast from 2015 to 2018 was verified and evaluated. The result shows: The prediction error is closely related to the offshore distance, the farther the station is from the coastline, the higher the consistency is. For far-shore stations, the predicted wind speeds are lower than the observed values and the wind directions have counterclockwise deviations. While for near-shore stations, it shows higher and clockwise. With forecast lead time extending, the correlation coefficient of wind speed gradually decreases, while the root-mean-square error of wind speed and wind direction gradually increases, and this change is more pronounced for far offshore stations. Further analysis on buoy stations indicates that the forecasts of NW, N and NE winds prevailing in winter have significant systematic deviations. Wind speeds were predicted lower for strong winds, and wind directions had clockwise deviations for light winds. The forecast dispersions of wind speed and wind direction are NW>N>NE. The prediction errors of S and SW winds prevailing in summer are relatively smaller than that of NW and N wind directions. Regarding the three typical gale systems, the cold air gales obtain the best forecast outcome, with the accuracy reaching 97% and over 70% for 12 h and 96 h lead time. The accuracy of tropical cyclone wind forecast declined most significantly over the lead time. It remains 85% for 36 h lead time but decreases sharply to less than 50% beyond 96 h. For low pressures or reverse trough systems, the forecast accuracy remains less than 60% within 144 h. In specific, the maximum wind predictions and observations at buoy stations during cold air and tropical cyclone systems are basically in line with the linear distribution. The correlation coefficient for the cold air system can pass the 0.05 significance test within 144 h, while for tropical cyclones it passes only within 48 h. The linear regression method was used to correct the maximum wind speed forecast at buoy stations for cold air systems, and the independent sample tests prove that this method is effective in reducing prediction errors.
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