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气象:2018,44(12):1628-1634
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热带气旋预报性能及指标综合评述
张定媛,田晓阳,贾朋群
(中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京100081)
Review on Performance and Index of Tropical Cyclone Forecast
ZHANG Dingyuan,TIAN Xiaoyang,JIA Pengqun
(China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2018-06-19    修订日期:2018-10-10
中文摘要: 热带气旋(TC)位居全球十大自然灾害之首,受到世界范围内的广泛重视。为了解当前国际上TC预报的整体水平,更好地审视我国TC预报的进展及在国际上的位置,基于主要国家和国际机构的TC预报性能评估项目,本文对近年来各预报中心的TC业务预报水平进行了客观对比分析。结果表明,过去十几年来,我国的TC路径预报水平有大幅度提高,已经跻身世界先进行列。各国对TC强度预报性能的提升预计还会经历一个漫长的过程,未来台风风雨预报的评估发展值得期待。
Abstract:In order to understand the level of tropical cyclone (TC) forecast in the world and the status of typhoon forecast in China, based on the TC forecast assessments of the major TC forecast services in the world, the main indicators of TC forecast and the comparisons of different forecast centers are reviewed. The results show that, in the past decades, typhoon track forecast of China has greatly improved, already ranked among the world’s top level. The improvement of TC intensity forecast has a long way to go. The assessment and development of typhoon precipitation forecast are worth expecting.
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基金项目:科技部改革发展专项“巴黎会议后应对气候变化急迫重大问题研究”和中国清洁发展机制基金(2013024)共同资助
引用文本:
张定媛,田晓阳,贾朋群,2018.热带气旋预报性能及指标综合评述[J].气象,44(12):1628-1634.
ZHANG Dingyuan,TIAN Xiaoyang,JIA Pengqun,2018.Review on Performance and Index of Tropical Cyclone Forecast[J].Meteor Mon,44(12):1628-1634.