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投稿时间：2014-01-19 修订日期：2015-04-24
投稿时间：2014-01-19 修订日期：2015-04-24
中文摘要: 利用淮河地区652个站点日降水量和参加全球交互式大集合预报计划的中国T213集合预报系统24 h累积降水预报，建立了新的集合预报评分中观测资料的处理方法。该方法基于模式检验的观测资料处理中考虑不确定性的思想，构建了观测概率法和观测百分位法的观测资料处理方法。本文方法和通常数值预报检验观测资料处理方法的模式检验对比分析表明：采用了观测概率法和观测百分位法处理降水观测后，五个降水阈值预报Brier评分检验表明，新的观测资料处理方法使预报的Brier评分分值下降，即预报性能得到提高，尤其在中低降水阈值区域较为明显。Brier技巧评分可靠性和分辨性的分析表明，模式五个降水阈值预报都有预报技巧。新的观测资料处理方法普遍提高了五个降水阈值预报的分辨性，但是降低了可靠性。本研究结果对在今后集合预报评分方法中考虑观测资料不确定性的影响，尤其是对集合预报降水的评估起到非常积极的作用。
中文关键词: 降水， 不确定性， 集合预报， 检验， Brier评分
Abstract:The daily precipitation of 652 rain gauges over the Huaihe River Basin and the daily precipitation forecasting products of ensemble system of China Meteorological Administration from TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) archive are employed to construct new observation data processing methods. The methods are based on taking observation uncertainties into consideration when processing observational data to assess ensemble precipitation forecasts. The observation probability (OP) method and observation percentile (OPC) method are presented in the paper, which are compared with traditional method of dealing with observation when accessing ensemble precipitation prediction skill, reliability and resolution for different precipitation thresholds. The Brier Score and Brier Skill Score of three methods are calculated. The results show that the Brier Scores are degraded and this degradation means the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is better to use OP method and OPC method for all of the thresholds, especially for middle and lower precipitation thresholds. The results of Brier Skill Score indicate that, the prediction has forecast skill for 0.1, 5, 10, 15 and 25 mm·(24 h)-1 thresholds, respectively. New observation processing methods generally improve the resolution component of the Brier Skill Score, but a little bit degrade the reliability component of the Brier Skill Score.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41475044)、国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2015CB452806)、国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2013ZX07304 001 1)和国家高技术研究发展计划（863计划）(2012AA091801)共同资助
引用文本：
赵琳娜,刘琳,刘莹,齐琳琳,田付友,2015.观测降水概率不确定性对集合预报概率Brier技巧评分结果的分析[J].气象,41(6):685-694.
ZHAO Linna,LIU Lin,LIU Ying,QI Linlin,TIAN Fuyou,2015.Impact of Observation Uncertainty of Precipitation on the Brier Skill Score of Global Ensemble Prediction System[J].Meteor Mon,41(6):685-694.
赵琳娜,刘琳,刘莹,齐琳琳,田付友,2015.观测降水概率不确定性对集合预报概率Brier技巧评分结果的分析[J].气象,41(6):685-694.
ZHAO Linna,LIU Lin,LIU Ying,QI Linlin,TIAN Fuyou,2015.Impact of Observation Uncertainty of Precipitation on the Brier Skill Score of Global Ensemble Prediction System[J].Meteor Mon,41(6):685-694.