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气象:2013,39(10):1325-1330
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山洪灾害风险雨量评估方法研究
(福建省气候中心,福州 350001)
Risk Rainfall Assessment Methods of Flash Floods Disaster
(Fujian Climate Center, Fuzhou 350001)
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投稿时间:2012-07-13    修订日期:2012-12-05
中文摘要: “Floodarea”为德国Geomer公司开发的水动力淹没模型,该模型以GIS栅格数据为基础并根据曼宁公式建立二维水动力动态演进。上清溪流域为福建山区无水文资料的典型小流域,选其作为研究对象,根据流域境内及周边气象站的降水记录采用泰森多边形法计算暴雨过程中流域的逐时面雨量,根据地表覆盖类型数据计算流域的地表产流系数及地表水力糙度。根据降水资料及1:10000数字高程模型,利用“Floodarea”对该流域内2010年6月18日的洪水过程进行再现淹没模拟;通过对比洪水过程中受灾点的实际淹没水位和模拟水位的差异,修改地表产流系数和地表水力糙度2个参数,从而对模拟过程中水流速度及淹没水深进行调整。结果表明,模拟洪水过程中受灾隐患点处最高淹没水深及时间与实际过程基本一致,达到了较好的模拟效果。通过分析流域洪水过程模拟结果中受灾点的逐时淹没水深与流域逐时面雨量的相关关系,可进一步推算流域受灾隐患点处不同等级淹没水深的临界雨量。
Abstract:Floodarea is a joint product of Geomer GmbH, Heidelberg, Germany. It is a 2 D dynamic flood evolution model, established based on GIS raster. In order to study the evaluation method of risk precipitation in small valley of mountain areas, a case study was performed for Shangqing River Valley, which lies in Fujian Province. Hourly area precipitation of the valley is calculated by using Thiessen polygon method of GIS and according to the rainy days of meteorological observing station. Coefficient of runoff formation and surface hydraulic power roughness is calculated with GIS on the basis of landscape in the valley. Based on precipitation data and digital elevation model data of 1:10000, the flood process which happened on June 18, 2010 is simulated with the “Floodarea” model. The water depth and water velocity is adjusted by means of changing coefficient of runoff formation and surface hydraulic power roughness, according to the differences between actual water depth and simulated water depth. The results show that tested by the research data after the flood process, the maximum water depth and its time are simulated well for the Shangqing River Valley. So the risk precipitation of different water depth grades in the valley can be calculated according to the simulated data.
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基金项目:国家气象局应急减灾与公共服务司《气象灾害灾险评估业务试点》项目资助
引用文本:
文明章,林昕,游立军,唐振飞,高建芸,张容焱,2013.山洪灾害风险雨量评估方法研究[J].气象,39(10):1325-1330.
WEN Mingzhang,LIN Xin,YOU Lijun,TANG Zhenfei,GAO Jianyun,ZHANG Rongyan,2013.Risk Rainfall Assessment Methods of Flash Floods Disaster[J].Meteor Mon,39(10):1325-1330.