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龚振淞, 支蓉
(中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室)
gongzhensong, zhirong
(National Climate Centre,CMA Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies)
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中文摘要: 2026年春季(3-5月)我国大部地区气温偏高,全国平均气温为12.0℃,为1961年以来历史同期第四高。全国平均降水量为166.3mm,较常年同期偏多15.8%。从空间分布看,我国中东部地区降水呈现南北两条多雨带:北方多雨带主要位于华北南部至黄淮,南方多雨带位于西南地区中东部至江南西部。春季欧亚中高纬500 hPa高度场呈现“两脊一槽”分布,乌拉尔山至巴尔喀什湖、东北亚为正高度距平控制,贝加尔湖及以北的中西伯利亚地区为高度场负距平,这样的环流形势有利于中西路冷空气南下影响我国。对流层低层风场上,东北亚地区受异常反气旋式环流控制,有利于西北太平洋的暖湿水汽输送至我国北方地区,并与南下的冷空气相结合,造成我国华北南部至黄淮等地春季降水明显偏多。春季北大西洋三极子正位相是造成春季我国中东部地区北方多雨带形成的重要外强迫信号。
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Abstract:IN the spring of 2026 (March to May), the temperature in most part of China was higher than normal, with a national mean temperature of 12.0°C, ranking as the fourth warmest since 1961. The national average precipitation was 166.3 mm, 15.8% above the normal. Spatially, precipitation in central and eastern China presented two main rainfall belts in the North and South: The northern rainfall belt is mainly located from the southern part of North China to the Huanghuai region, while the southern rainfall belt is located from the central-eastern part of Southwest China to the western part of Jiangnan. At 500hPa geopotential height field over the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia exhibited a “two ridges and one trough” pattern. Positive height anomalies prevail over the region from the Ural Mountains to Lake Balkhash and over Northeast Asia, whereas negative height anomalies were center over Lake Baikal and the central Siberia area to its north, a circulation pattern that facilitating the southward intrusion of cold air along the central and western paths into China. In the lower- tropospheric wind field, Northeast Asia was dominated by an anomalous anticyclonic circulation, which favors the transport of warm and moist water vapor from the western North Pacific to northern China. Combined with the southward-moving cold air, this led to significantly above-normal spring precipitation over areas from the southern part of North China to the Huanghuai region. The positive phase of the spring North Atlantic Tripole (NAT) server as an important external forcing signal responsible for the formation of the northern rainy belt over central and eastern China in spring.
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