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基于多源观测资料的一次后向传播类大暴雨过程形成机理研究
辛月, 侯淑梅, 张登旭, 范子琪, 于腾飞, 王瑞雪, 曹倩
(山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室、山东省气象台)
Study on the Formation Mechanism of a Backward-Propagating Heavy Rainstorm Event Based on Multi-Source Observation Data
xinyue, houshumei, zhangdengxu, fanziqi, yutengfei, wangruixue, Cao Qian
(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong Provinc、Shandong Meteorological Observatory)
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投稿时间:2025-04-28    修订日期:2026-06-28
中文摘要: 2024年8月4日,山东省德州市武城站出现大暴雨,突破武城站日降水量和最大小时降水量历史极值。利用加密自动气象观测站、多普勒天气雷达、风廓线雷达及ERA5再分析和GDAS资料,结合HYSPLIT模式揭示了其后向传播型对流系统得以长时间维持并产生极端降水的多尺度物理机制。结果表明,此次过程发生在大尺度后倾槽与副热带高压对峙的环流背景下,低空急流(LLJ)和超低空急流(SLLJ)持续将来自南海与孟加拉湾的充沛水汽输送至鲁西北,在锋前暖区构建了高能、高温、高湿的极端不稳定环境。降水形成的冷池出流与环境暖湿气流形成准静止辐合线,其与LLJ的时空脉动相耦合,共同驱动新生对流单体持续向西南方向传播,直接导致极端强降水。能量的动态重建是系统维持的关键:尽管降水消耗不稳定能量,但SLLJ持续的暖湿平流输送使得对流有效位能得以快速重建并维持峰值,形成了“能量输送—对流消耗—能量重建”的正反馈自维持机制,导致后向传播型强降水的持续发生。
Abstract:On August 4, 2024, a heavy rainstorm (referred to as the “24·8” extreme rainfall event) occurred at Wucheng Station in Dezhou, Shandong Province, breaking the historical records for both daily precipitation and maximum hourly precipitation at the station. This study utilizes intensive automatic weather station observations, Doppler weather radar, wind profiler radar data ,and ERA5 reanalysis and GDAS data, combined with the HYSPLIT model, to reveal the multi-scale physical mechanisms that enabled the long-lasting back-propagating convective system and its associated extreme rainfall. The results indicate that this event occurred under a large-scale circulation pattern characterized by a rearward-tilted trough confronting the subtropical high. Low level jet (LLJ) and super low level jet (SLLJ) persistently transported abundant moisture from the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal to northwestern Shandong, establishing an extremely unstable environment with high energy, high temperature, and high humidity within the warm sector ahead of a surface front. The cold pool outflow generated by precipitation interacted with the ambient warm, moist airflow, forming a quasi-stationary convergence line. Coupled with temporal and spatial pulsations of the LLJ, this interaction continuously drove new convective cells to propagate southwestward, directly causing the extreme heavy rainfall. Dynamic energy reconstruction was key to the system''s maintenance: although rainfall consumed unstable energy, persistent warm, moist advection transported by SLLJ allowed convective available potential energy to be rapidly rebuilt and maintained near its peak. This process established a positive feedback self-sustaining mechanism characterized by energy reconstruction leading to the sustained occurrence of the back-propagating heavy rainfall.
文章编号:202504280112     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:黄河流域气象联合开放基金(HHJJ2026M02),山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2025LQX008,ZR2024LQX006,ZR2021MD010)和山东省气象局科研项目(2025sdqxz12,SDTQ2024-02,SDTQ2024-01,2024sdrcyj02,2025sdqxz18,2025SDTQ01)共同资助
Author NameAffiliationAddress
xinyue Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong Provinc、Shandong Meteorological Observatory 山东省济南市天桥区山东省气象局
houshumei  山东省济南市天桥区山东省气象局
zhangdengxu  
fanziqi  
yutengfei  
wangruixue  
Cao Qian  
引用文本:
xinyue,houshumei,zhangdengxu,fanziqi,yutengfei,wangruixue,Cao Qian,0.Study on the Formation Mechanism of a Backward-Propagating Heavy Rainstorm Event Based on Multi-Source Observation Data[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
xinyue,houshumei,zhangdengxu,fanziqi,yutengfei,wangruixue,Cao Qian,0.Study on the Formation Mechanism of a Backward-Propagating Heavy Rainstorm Event Based on Multi-Source Observation Data[J].Meteor Mon,():-.