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投稿时间:2025-03-24 修订日期:2026-06-16
投稿时间:2025-03-24 修订日期:2026-06-16
中文摘要: 基于贵州2010—2023年4—9月高密度国家级气象观测站与区域级气象观测站逐小时降水观测资料、SRTM高程数据以及ERA5再分析资料,系统研究了贵州暴雨的精细化时空分布特征,并利用多元地形组合分析与地理加权回归模型(GWR)探讨地形对暴雨分布的影响。结果表明:贵州暴雨空间分布不均,存在3个暴雨中心,其中频次与降水量最大值集中于贵州东南部边缘;特大暴雨分散性强,贵州东北部及中南部地区暴雨量占比高。此外,暴雨日数年际变化明显,具有逐年增加的趋势,于2020—2021年达到峰值;6—7月为暴雨高发期,且多伴随短时强降水,持续时间长,致灾风险高。降水日变化呈单峰型,夜间降水占主导,约03时(北京时)雨强最大,短时强降水夜间峰值显著;夜间降水量约为白天的2倍,主要分布在贵州西部和南部,并具有向东传播的特征。暴雨频发区与地形密切关联,西部、东南部及东北部暴雨中心分别位于北盘江、雷公山及梵净山地形抬升区,体现了地形与盛行风向的耦合抬升机制。单一地形因子与降水的直接相关性普遍较弱,通过多元地形组合分析,降水分布的解释性有所提高。坡度、坡向、高程与起伏度对暴雨分布呈现非线性影响:南坡暴雨站次最多,坡度<20°、高程800~1000 m、起伏度<200 m时暴雨频次随相应地形因子的增大而增加,超过阈值后逐步递减。多地形参数组合分析表明,急陡/中坡、南坡、中海拔、大/中起伏和迎风坡的组合对暴雨触发作用更为显著。GWR模型诊断显示地形因子的影响存在明显的空间异质性,高程为全省大部地区主导因子,起伏度、坡度和坡向影响局地性强,多集中于地势落差较大或河流、高山附近。
中文关键词: 贵州暴雨,精细化特征,地形影响,地理加权回归模型
Abstract:Based on hourly precipitation data from high-density national and regional stations in Guizhou Province from April to September in 2010–2023, as well as SRTM elevation data and ERA5 reanalysis data, this study systematically investigates the fine-scale spatio-temporal characteristics of rainstorms and their relationships with terrain in Guizhou by using multivariate terrain combination analysis and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results show that rainstorms in Guizhou are distributed unevenly with three rainstorm centers. The maximum frequency and intensity of rainstorms are concentrated in the southeastern edge area and extremely heavy rainstorms are scattered. The rainstorm proportion is higher in the northeastern and central-southern parts of Guizhou. Rainstorm days show an increasing interannual variability, peaking in 2020–2021. Rainstorms occur mainly in June and July, often accompanied by short-duration heavy precipitation and lasting for a long time, which poses high disaster risks. Diurnal variation of precipitation is unimodal and dominated by nocturnal rain (22:00–08:00 BT), and the rainfall intensity often reaches its peaks around 03:00 BT. Short-duration heavy precipitation exhibits a pronounced nocturnal peak, and the nighttime precipitation amount is roughly twice the daytime precipitation, mainly concentrated in the west and south of Guizhou and featured with eastward propagation. The Guizhou rainstorm-prone areas correspond to the topographic uplift zones of the Beipan River, Leigong Mountain, and Fanjing Mountain, reflecting terrain–wind coupling. Single terrain factors are weak to be directly correlated to precipitation. However, through the analysis of multiple terrain combinations, the explanatory power of precipitation distribution has been enhanced. Slope, aspect, elevation, and relief exert nonlinear effects. Rainstorm stations are the most in south aspects. Rainstorm frequency increases when slope is <20°, elevation ranges in 800–1,000?m, and relief is <200 m, but decreases beyond these thresholds. The combined analysis indicates that the steep/moderate slope, south aspect, medium elevation, large/medium relief, and windward slope has the strongest triggering effect. The GWR model diagnosis suggests that there is obvious spatial heterogeneity in the influence of topographic factors.. Elevation is the dominant factor in most areas of Guizhou, and the local influence of relief, slope and aspect is strong, mostly concentrated in the vicinity of large relief or near rivers and mountains.
文章编号:202503240072 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:贵州省基础研究(自然科学)项目(黔科合基础-ZK[2024]一般623、黔科合基础-ZK[2024]一般622)、全国暴雨研究开放基金项目(BYKJ2024Q07)、中国气象局暴雨精细化分析和预报青年创新团队(CMA2023QN05)、贵州省气象局贵州雨窝监测预报技术研究创新团队(黔气科合TD[2024]01号)、中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室开放研究课题面上项目(23SWQXM023)和中国气象局政策研究气象软科学课题(2025RKXZDIAN29)共同资助
| Author Name | Affiliation | Address |
| LI Zhiyu | Guizhou Meteorological Observatory | 贵州省贵阳市南明区新华路翠微巷9号 |
| ZHU Yulei | ||
| YANG Jing | ||
| WEI Tao | ||
| GU Tianhong | ||
| SHANG Yuanyuan |
引用文本:
LI Zhiyu,ZHU Yulei,YANG Jing,WEI Tao,GU Tianhong,SHANG Yuanyuan,0.Fine-Scale Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Topographic Influence of Rainstorms in Guizhou Province from April to September[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
LI Zhiyu,ZHU Yulei,YANG Jing,WEI Tao,GU Tianhong,SHANG Yuanyuan,0.Fine-Scale Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Topographic Influence of Rainstorms in Guizhou Province from April to September[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
LI Zhiyu,ZHU Yulei,YANG Jing,WEI Tao,GU Tianhong,SHANG Yuanyuan,0.Fine-Scale Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Topographic Influence of Rainstorms in Guizhou Province from April to September[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
LI Zhiyu,ZHU Yulei,YANG Jing,WEI Tao,GU Tianhong,SHANG Yuanyuan,0.Fine-Scale Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Topographic Influence of Rainstorms in Guizhou Province from April to September[J].Meteor Mon,():-.