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投稿时间:2025-09-28 修订日期:2026-05-18
投稿时间:2025-09-28 修订日期:2026-05-18
中文摘要: 2024年11月,黑龙江降水量达31.5 mm,居1961年以来历史同期第四多,其中25—29日的极端降水事件贡献了全月降水的73%,5 d累计降水量达历史同期平均的13.5倍。环流演变分析表明,11月欧亚中高纬环流呈现明显的阶段性变化:前期(1—24日)受"西负东正"位势高度距平场控制,降水偏少;后期(25—29日)环流调整为"倒Ω"型分布,乌拉尔山和鄂霍次克海双阻塞高压与东北冷涡形成稳定配置。该配置引导极地冷空气南下,并与低空急流输送的暖湿气流在黑龙江上空强烈交汇,加剧了水汽辐合与动力抬升。受双阻塞高压锁相影响,该系统在黑龙江上空滞留,最终引发持续性大范围强降水。统计显示,1961年以来黑龙江11月降水量位列前10的年份中,有4年均由单次极端降水事件主导,这揭示了天气尺度系统调整对降水异常的关键作用。研究结果深化了对该时段极端降水成因的认识,为降水预报提供重要参考。
中文关键词: 极端降水,环流成因,天气尺度,东北冷涡
Abstract:In November 2024, the precipitation in Heilongjiang Province reached 31.5 mm, ranking as the 4th highest in the same period since 1961. An extreme precipitation event during 25–29 November contributed 73% of the total monthly precipitation, with its 5-day accumulated precipitation being 13.5 times the climatological average for the same period. Analysis of the circulation evolution revealed a clear two-phase variation in the mid- to high-latitude circulation over Eurasia. In the early phase (1–24 November), precipitation was suppressed by a "negative in the west, positive in the east" geopotential height anomaly pattern, corresponding to below-normal precipitation. During the late phase ((25–29 November), the circulation adjusted to an "inverted Ω" pattern, characterized by the establishment of dual blocking highs over the Ural Mountains and the Sea of Okhotsk, which formed a stable configuration with the northeast cold vortex (NECV). This configuration guided the southward intrusion of polar cold air, which intensely converged with the warm and moist air transported by a low-level jet over Heilongjiang, enhancing moisture convergence and dynamic lifting. Influenced by the locked phase of the dual blocking highs, this weather system remained stagnant over the region, ultimately triggering a persistent, widespread heavy precipitation event. Statistics show that 4 of the 10 wettest Novembers in Heilongjiang since 1961 were dominated by single extreme precipitation events, revealing the critical role of synoptic-scale system adjustments in causing November precipitation anomalies. These results enhance our understanding of the causes of extreme precipitation in November in Heilongjiang Province and provide important references for its prediction.
文章编号:202509280259 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2025-037)和中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所联合开放基金课题(2024SYIAEKFMS09)共同资助。
| 作者 | 单位 | 地址 |
| 娄德君 | 黑龙江省气候中心 | 黑龙江省哈尔滨市电碳路71号黑龙江省气候中心 |
| 王昊 | 黑龙江省气候中心 | |
| 李永生* | 黑龙江省气候中心 | 黑龙江省哈尔滨市电碳路71号黑龙江省气候中心 |
| 班晋 | 黑龙江省气候中心 | |
| 王营 | 黑龙江省气候中心 | |
| 魏思灼 | 黑龙江省气候中心 | |
| 王姝彦 | 尚志市气象局 | |
| 李蔓莹 | 尚志市气象局 |
| Author Name | Affiliation | Address |
| Lou De Jun | Heilongjiang Climate Center | 黑龙江省哈尔滨市电碳路71号黑龙江省气候中心 |
| Wang Hao | ||
| Li Yong Sheng | 黑龙江省哈尔滨市电碳路71号黑龙江省气候中心 | |
| Ban Jin | ||
| Wang Ying | ||
| Wei Si Zhuo | ||
| Wang Shu Yan | ||
| Li Man Ying |
引用文本:
Lou De Jun,Wang Hao,Li Yong Sheng,Ban Jin,Wang Ying,Wei Si Zhuo,Wang Shu Yan,Li Man Ying,0.Characteristics and Possible Causes of the Extreme Precipitation over Heilongjiang Province in November 2024[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Lou De Jun,Wang Hao,Li Yong Sheng,Ban Jin,Wang Ying,Wei Si Zhuo,Wang Shu Yan,Li Man Ying,0.Characteristics and Possible Causes of the Extreme Precipitation over Heilongjiang Province in November 2024[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Lou De Jun,Wang Hao,Li Yong Sheng,Ban Jin,Wang Ying,Wei Si Zhuo,Wang Shu Yan,Li Man Ying,0.Characteristics and Possible Causes of the Extreme Precipitation over Heilongjiang Province in November 2024[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Lou De Jun,Wang Hao,Li Yong Sheng,Ban Jin,Wang Ying,Wei Si Zhuo,Wang Shu Yan,Li Man Ying,0.Characteristics and Possible Causes of the Extreme Precipitation over Heilongjiang Province in November 2024[J].Meteor Mon,():-.