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雷达反射率反演水汽和温度同化技术 在一次飑线过程中的应用研究
赖安伟, 马鹤翟, 崔春光, 康兆萍, 王志斌, 杜牧云, 肖艳姣, 王珏
(中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所 暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室)
A Squall line case study of assimilating the radar data, pseudo- observation for convective-scale numerical model in a 3DVAR framework
LAI Anwei, Ma Hedi, Cui Chunguang, Kang zhaoping, Wang Zhibin, Du Muyun, Xiao Yanjiao, Wang Jue
(Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan)
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投稿时间:2020-08-23    修订日期:2021-07-07
中文摘要: 提 要:利用3DVAR方法同化雷达反射率,无法改善背景场中的水汽和温度条件,模式存在spin-up问题。前期研究基于ARPS 3DVAR系统提出了雷达反射率的反演水汽和云内温度的伪观测(Pseudo- observations)同化方法。本文针对2020年5月4日发生在江南一次飑线过程,在逐15分钟快速更新循环同化预报系统中,探讨了利用3DVAR方法同化雷达径向风、反射率和反演观测对短时降水、大风和冰雹等灾害天气的预报影响,同时探讨了不同冷启动时刻对降水预报的影响。结果表明:(1)冷启动时刻同化反演水汽和云内温度观测,观测强回波区的水汽和降水回波区内位温增量为正。随着循环次数的增加,背景场中虚假对流区的水汽减弱,对流被抑制;正的温度增量主要集中在观测回波大于背景模拟回波区,其增幅明显减小。(2)相对于只同化雷达资料试验,同化伪观测资料能明显改善0-3 h内的雷达组合反射率和降水预报, 2-5km 上升螺旋度路径与大风、冰雹灾害位置更接近;对0-6 h的1h累积降水量在1 mm、5 mm和10mm等级的FSS评分改善明显,随着循环同化次数增多,改进效果先明显增加,6-8 h左右改进效果达到顶峰,随后FSS评分相对雷达同化试验有所下降。(3)1200 UTC更新背景场后,有、无同化伪观测资料试验,相对于0500 UTC冷启动明显提高降水FSS评分,且同化伪观测资料的积极贡献预报时效更长。
Abstract:The radar reflectivity assimilation using 3DVAR method can not improve the water vapor and temperature conditions in the background field, and the spin up problem exists in the model. Based on ARPS 3DVAR system, a pseudo observation assimilation method for retrieving water vapor and in-cloud temperature based on radar reflectivity is proposed. This paper discusses the influence of assimilating radar radial wind and reflectivity, pseudo observation on precipitation, gale and hail, and discusses the influence of different cold start time on precipitation forecast for a squall line event occurred in the south of the Yangtze River on May 4, 2020. The results indicate that: (1) assimilating the pseudo water vapor and in-cloud potential temperature at the cold start time, the water vapor was increaded in the observed strong echo area., while the negative water vapor increment mainly appears in the spurious convection of background, the potential temperature increase mainly concentrates in the area where the observed echo is larger than the background simulated echo. (2) Compared with only assimilating radar data after assimilating pseudo-water vapor and pseudo- in- cloud potential temperature, the analyses and forecasts of squall line events are qualitatively and quantitatively improved, including: the simulated 2-5 km updraft helicity is more consistent with the location of damage wind and hail disaster;the FSS score at 1,5,10 mm threshold of 1haccumulated precipitation in 0-12 h is significantly improved. (3) Different cold start-up time experiments show that After the background field was updated at 1200 UTC, the precipitation FSS score was significantly improved compared with 0500 UTC, while assimilating pseudo observation data has a positive contribution to improving precipitation both experiments..
文章编号:202008230308     中图分类号:P456    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41620104009)、政府间国际科技创新合作重点专项(2016YFE0109400)和国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1507200)共同资助
Author NameAffiliationAddress
LAI Anwei Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan 湖北省武汉市东湖新技术开发区金融港二路6号
Ma Hedi  
Cui Chunguang  湖北省武汉市东湖新技术开发区金融港二路6号
Kang zhaoping  
Wang Zhibin  
Du Muyun  
Xiao Yanjiao  
Wang Jue  
引用文本:
赖安伟,马鹤翟,崔春光,康兆萍,王志斌,杜牧云,肖艳姣,王珏,0.A Squall line case study of assimilating the radar data, pseudo- observation for convective-scale numerical model in a 3DVAR framework[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
LAI Anwei,Ma Hedi,Cui Chunguang,Kang zhaoping,Wang Zhibin,Du Muyun,Xiao Yanjiao,Wang Jue,0.A Squall line case study of assimilating the radar data, pseudo- observation for convective-scale numerical model in a 3DVAR framework[J].Meteor Mon,():-.