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随机参数扰动在一次山地暴雨集合预报中的对比研究
熊洁, 李俊, 王明欢
(中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所)
A Comparative Study of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization on a storm-scale ensemble forecast in a terrain rainstorm event
XIONG Jie, Li Jun, Wang Minghuan
(Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA)
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投稿时间:2020-08-03    修订日期:2021-07-04
中文摘要: 基于WRFv3.9模式使用随机参数扰动MYNN边界层方案和RUC陆面过程方案参数对我国西南山地一次特大暴雨模拟,对比评估出山地暴雨集合预报中针对MYNN边界层、RUC陆面过程方案随机参数扰动的较优设置,主要结论如下:随机扰动MYNN边界层方案(SPPM)和RUC陆面过程方案(SPPR)参数试验,扰动的主要是地面和模式低层的变量,扰动能量从模式低层逐步向高层发展, 两者相比扰动边界层方案能获得更大的扰动能量; 较去空间相关尺度而言,SPPM方案对去时间相关参数的变化更敏感,而SPPR方案由于其扰动能量总体偏小,去空间和时间相关参数的变化对其集合预报性能影响相对较小;SPPM方案中去时间相关选择6 h,去空间尺度选择70 km可以获得较好的集合预报技巧,SPPR方案中相对而言去时间相关选择6 h,去空间尺度选择50 km可以获得较好的集合预报技巧。
Abstract:Based on WRFV3.9 mode, the Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization was used to perturb MYNN boundary layer and RUC land surface process scheme parameters to simulate a severe rainstorm in southwest Mountains of China. The optimal settings for parameter perturbations of MYNN boundary layer and RUC land surface process in mountain rainstorm ensemble forecast were explored.The main conclusions are as follows:In the random disturbance MYNN boundary layer scheme (SPPM) and RUC land surface process scheme (SPPR) parameters, the disturbance is mainly influenced the variables at the ground and lower level, and the disturbance energy gradually develops from the lower level to the higher level in the mode, and the SPPM can get greater disturbance energy then SPPR. The SPPM scheme is more sensitive to the variation of temporal correlation parameters than the spatial correlated parameters. However, the perturbation energy of SPPR scheme is generally small, and the variation of spatial and temporal correlation parameters has relatively little influence on its ensemble prediction performance. In SPPM scheme, a better ensemble prediction skill can be obtained by the temporal correlation selection for 6h and the spatial scale selection for 70km, and in SPPR scheme, relatively speaking, a better ensemble prediction skill can be obtained by the temporal correlation for 6h and the spatial scale for 50km.
文章编号:202008030270     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507200)和政府间国际科技创新合作重点专项(2016YFE0109400)共同资助
作者单位地址
熊洁 中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所 湖北省武汉市东湖新技术开发区金融港二路6号 湖北暴雨监测预警中心
李俊 中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所 
王明欢 中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所 
Author NameAffiliationAddress
XIONG Jie Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA 湖北省武汉市东湖新技术开发区金融港二路6号 湖北暴雨监测预警中心
Li Jun  
Wang Minghuan  
引用文本:
熊洁,李俊,王明欢,0.A Comparative Study of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization on a storm-scale ensemble forecast in a terrain rainstorm event[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
XIONG Jie,Li Jun,Wang Minghuan,0.A Comparative Study of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization on a storm-scale ensemble forecast in a terrain rainstorm event[J].Meteor Mon,():-.