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DOI:
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2019年西北太平洋台风活动特征和预报难点分析
王海平
(国家气象中心)
The Analysis of the Characteristics of Forecast Difficulties of TCs on Western North Pacific in 2019
WANG Haiping
(National Meteorological Center)
摘要
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投稿时间:2020-09-17    修订日期:2021-06-28
中文摘要: 2019年度在西北太平洋及南海共生成台风29个,比多年同期平均偏多2个,其中6个台风登陆我国,比多年同期平均偏少1个;台风整体强度偏弱,但全年最强台风“利奇马”“夏浪”极值强度达到65m68m/s(17级以上);登陆台风整体强度偏弱,但“利奇马”登陆强度强(52米/秒,超强台风级)、影响重;秋季台风生成数较常年明显偏多,尤其是11月生成台风数达到6个。2019年中央气象台台风路径预报平均误差与近5年(2014-2018年)的平均误差相比,在24-72h的预报误差有所增大,而96-120h的预报误差则明显减小,尤其是120h的预报准确率创新高。与日、美官方预报相比,中国在24h和96-120h的预报水平处于领先地位,在48-72h的预报误差比日本略高,但低于美国,与EC确定性模式相当。
Abstract:A total of 29 typhoons generated over Western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2019, 2 more than the average of 27 in the same period of many years, and 56 typhoons landed in China, 21 less than the average of 7.0 in the same period of many years. The overall typhoon intensity is relatively weak, with the peak intensity averaging 37.8 m/s (level 13), which is weaker than the perennial average. The overall strength of the landfall typhoon is weak, but the landfall intensity of "Lekima" is strong and the impact is heavy. Autumn typhoon generation is obviously more. There were 6 typhoons in November, which were the most typhoons in November since 1949. Compared with Japan JMA and the JTWCUnited States, CMA China is in the leading position in the prediction level of 24h and 96-120h, the prediction error of 48-72 hours is slightly higher than that of JMAJapan, but lower than that of the United StatesJTWC.
文章编号:202009170328     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:中国气象局气象预报业务关键技术发展专项(YBGJXM(2018)06);中国气象局数值预报(GRAPES)发展专项(GRAPES-FZZX-2019-05)
作者单位地址
王海平 国家气象中心 北京市海淀区中关村南大街46号
Author NameAffiliationAddress
WANG Haiping National Meteorological Center 北京市海淀区中关村南大街46号
引用文本:
王海平,0.The Analysis of the Characteristics of Forecast Difficulties of TCs on Western North Pacific in 2019[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
WANG Haiping,0.The Analysis of the Characteristics of Forecast Difficulties of TCs on Western North Pacific in 2019[J].Meteor Mon,():-.